Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Sarrabus Ogliastra vs Real Monterotondo

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group G
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Sarrabus Ogliastra play Real Monterotondo in the Serie D - Group G. It looks like a close match. Recently, Sarrabus Ogliastra averaged 1.37 goals scored and 1.53 conceded. Real Monterotondo averaged 1.13 goals scored and 1.7 conceded. In past meetings, Sarrabus Ogliastra won 2, Real Monterotondo won 3, and they drew 0. Their last match on Apr 19, 2026 ended 2:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.44 for Sarrabus Ogliastra and 1.19 for Real Monterotondo. This points to a Sarrabus Ogliastra double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

49%
Sarrabus Ogliastra
15%
Draws
36%
Real Monterotondo
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Sarrabus Ogliastra

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

75% / High Confidence
  • Sarrabus Ogliastra picked up more points recently compared to Real Monterotondo.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.44 vs 1.19 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 55%
Over 3.5 Goals 33%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 54%
Sarrabus Ogliastra Clean Sheet 20%
Real Monterotondo Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 68%
Second Half Goal 71%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sarrabus Ogliastra Real Monterotondo
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 11 8
Draws 7 6
Losses 12 16
Goals Scored 1.37 1.13
Goals Conceded 1.53 1.7
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.88 1.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 19, 2026 Serie D - Group G
Real Monterotondo vs Sarrabus Ogliastra
2:1
Dec 7, 2025 Serie D - Group G
Sarrabus Ogliastra vs Real Monterotondo
1:0
Feb 23, 2025 Serie D - Group G
Sarrabus Ogliastra vs Real Monterotondo
2:1
Oct 23, 2024 Serie D - Group G
Real Monterotondo vs Sarrabus Ogliastra
4:2
May 7, 2023 Serie D - Group G
Real Monterotondo vs Sarrabus Ogliastra
5:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sarrabus Ogliastra Compare

Top Goalscorer Murgia A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Real Monterotondo Compare

Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sarrabus Ogliastra 48 / 100
Real Monterotondo 34 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sarrabus Ogliastra Real Monterotondo

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Sarrabus Ogliastra or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +19.6%
2.44
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +12.2%
2.04
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Sarrabus Ogliastra attacking → ← attacking Real Monterotondo

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sarrabus Ogliastra scored in 70% of their last 30 games.

Real Monterotondo let in goals in 87% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 4.00 goals.

Sarrabus Ogliastra went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Real Monterotondo lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

40 Points in last 5 30
1.25 Goals expected (xG) 1.50
0.88 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.63

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Scafatese34276175:2387
2Trastevere Calcio34179864:4660
3Monastir341581151:4453
4Flaminia341312953:3751
5Albalonga341481255:5550
6Latte Dolce341461449:4948
7Valmontone341461449:5048
8Nocerina341114936:3347
9Sarrabus Ogliastra3412101247:5146
10Budoni Calcio341291333:3245
11Palmese 19143411121141:4345
12Atl. Lodigiani3411111243:4044
13Ischia341271536:5243
14Anzio Calcio 19243410111338:4341
15Real Monterotondo341061839:5836
16Olbia348141239:5036
17Montespaccato346121647:5830
18Cassino34492124:5521