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SC Penedense vs Cruzeiro Arapiraca

Brazil Brazil

Alagoano Estádio Alfredo Leahy, Penedo
SC Penedense Logo

SC Penedense

1 - 0
FT
Cruzeiro Arapiraca Logo

Cruzeiro Arapiraca

Our Tip

Match Events

16'
Jeferson Mendes
18'
Edy
46'
Sub
Mendes Figueiredo R. In: Ciel
Out: Mendes Figueiredo R.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

SC Penedense in this Alagoano matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored SC Penedense.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
SC Penedense
30%
Draws
39%
Cruzeiro Arapiraca
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Cruzeiro Arapiraca

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Cruzeiro Arapiraca lately — more wins on the board than SC Penedense.
  • 42% — that's where the model lands on SC Penedense taking it.
  • Regular Alagoano form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 21%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 24.4%
SC Penedense Clean Sheet 68%
Cruzeiro Arapiraca Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric SC Penedense Cruzeiro Arapiraca
Matches Played 31 29
Wins 4 10
Draws 10 7
Losses 17 12
Goals Scored 0.42 1.14
Goals Conceded 1.06 1.24
Expected Goals (xG) 0.75 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 10, 2026 Alagoano
SC Penedense vs Cruzeiro Arapiraca
1:0
Feb 11, 2024 Alagoano
Cruzeiro Arapiraca vs SC Penedense
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

SC Penedense Compare

Top Goalscorer Darli
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.58
Avg xA / game 0.38

Cruzeiro Arapiraca Compare

Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

SC Penedense 51 / 100
Cruzeiro Arapiraca 48 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
SC Penedense Cruzeiro Arapiraca

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Cruzeiro Arapiraca conceded in 79% of 29 recent games.

Attacking prowess: SC Penedense scored in 32% of their last 31 outings.

Historical meetings average 1.00 goals per match.

SC Penedense has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

SC Penedense VS Cruzeiro Arapiraca
0.25 Goals Scored 0.5
1 Goals Conceded 1.25
38% Over 1.5 63%
0% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

SC Penedense

(Home)
18 Mar
SC Penedense
2 : 2
Zumbi
02 Mar
SC Penedense
0 : 1
ASA
25 Feb
Londrina
1 : 0
SC Penedense
21 Feb
Miguelense
0 : 1
SC Penedense
07 Feb
ASA
2 : 0
SC Penedense
Page 1 of 7

Cruzeiro Arapiraca

(Away)
18 Mar
Coruripe
1 : 1
Cruzeiro Arapiraca
10 Mar
Cruzeiro Arapiraca
3 : 3
Dimensao Capela
07 Feb
CSA
2 : 0
Cruzeiro Arapiraca
04 Feb
CSA
3 : 0
Cruzeiro Arapiraca
31 Jan
Cruzeiro Arapiraca
2 : 1
Coruripe
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 ASA 7 5 2 0 13:3 17
2 CSA 7 5 2 0 10:1 17
3 CRB 7 4 1 2 8:8 13
4 Murici 7 3 2 2 8:5 11
5 Cruzeiro Arapiraca 7 2 0 5 6:12 6
6 Coruripe 7 1 2 4 5:11 5
7 SC Penedense 7 1 2 4 2:8 5
8 Clube Sociedade Esportiva 7 1 1 5 6:10 4
Promotion - Alagoano (Play Offs)