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SC Penedense vs Murici

Brazil Brazil

Copa Alagoas Estádio Alfredo Leahy, Penedo
SC Penedense Logo

SC Penedense

0 - 1
FT
Murici Logo

Murici

Our Tip

Match Events

76' Event
Leo Itaperuna
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 0-1. This leg finished 0-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
SC Penedense
20%
Draws
40%
Murici
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Murici have won more games recently than SC Penedense.
  • Model gives Murici a 40% chance of winning this.
  • Murici arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Murici, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 13%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 19.6%
SC Penedense Clean Sheet 24%
Murici Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric SC Penedense Murici
Matches Played 34 30
Wins 6 10
Draws 11 8
Losses 17 12
Goals Scored 0.5 1.27
Goals Conceded 0.97 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 0.32 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 4, 2026 Copa Alagoas
SC Penedense vs Murici
0:1
Feb 1, 2026 Alagoano
SC Penedense vs Murici
0:0
Jan 11, 2025 Alagoano
SC Penedense vs Murici
1:0
Mar 6, 2024 Copa Alagoas
SC Penedense vs Murici
0:0
Mar 2, 2024 Alagoano
Murici vs SC Penedense
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

SC Penedense Compare

Avg xG / game 0.25
Avg xA / game 0.16

Murici Compare

Top Goalscorer Leo Itaperuna
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

SC Penedense 29 / 100
Murici 50 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
SC Penedense Murici

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Murici Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Murici lost 3 of their last 5 games.

SC Penedense's goal record stands at 35% scoring rate across 34 recent games.

Murici's defensive record shows goals conceded in 57% of 30 matches.

H2H data points to 0.40 goals as a typical output.

Scoring Trends

SC Penedense VS Murici
0.25 Goals Scored 0.88
1 Goals Conceded 0.38
38% Over 1.5 25%
0% Over 2.5 13%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

SC Penedense

(Home)
18 Mar
SC Penedense
2 : 2
Zumbi
02 Mar
SC Penedense
0 : 1
ASA
25 Feb
Londrina
1 : 0
SC Penedense
21 Feb
Miguelense
0 : 1
SC Penedense
07 Feb
ASA
2 : 0
SC Penedense
Page 1 of 7

Murici

(Away)
18 Mar
Clube Sociedade Esportiva
3 : 0
Murici
14 Mar
Zumbi
1 : 0
Murici
01 Mar
Murici
6 : 0
Miguelense
22 Feb
ASA
3 : 0
Murici
14 Feb
Murici
0 : 0
ASA
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 CSA 4 3 0 1 11:3 9
2 CRB 4 2 1 1 7:4 7
3 Coruripe 4 2 1 1 6:7 7
4 Cruzeiro Arapiraca 4 0 3 1 4:7 3
5 Dimensao Capela 4 0 1 3 3:10 1
6 Alianca 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - Copa Alagoas (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 ASA 5 4 1 0 10:1 13
2 Clube Sociedade Esportiva 5 4 1 0 10:2 13
3 Zumbi 5 2 1 2 8:9 7
4 Murici 5 2 0 3 7:5 6
5 SC Penedense 5 1 1 3 3:5 4
6 Miguelense 5 0 0 5 2:18 0
Promotion - Copa Alagoas (Play Offs)