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SD Deusto vs Santurtzi

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Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

19' Event
Hierro I.
48' Event
Corral A.

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026 game between SD Deusto and Santurtzi finished 0-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Santurtzi.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
SD Deusto
33%
Draws
27%
Santurtzi
Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: SD Deusto

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • Santurtzi carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans SD Deusto's way, sitting at 40%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
SD Deusto Clean Sheet 68%
Santurtzi Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric SD Deusto Santurtzi
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 6 8
Draws 6 11
Losses 18 11
Goals Scored 0.88 0.63
Goals Conceded 1.75 1
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 0.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.75 1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 21, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
SD Deusto vs Santurtzi
0:2
Nov 9, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Santurtzi vs SD Deusto
1:1
Feb 1, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Santurtzi vs SD Deusto
1:1
Sep 21, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
SD Deusto vs Santurtzi
2:1
Feb 16, 2020 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Santurtzi vs SD Deusto
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

SD Deusto Compare

Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Santurtzi Compare

Top Goalscorer Hierro I.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Corral A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.57
Avg xA / game 0.35

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

SD Deusto 50 / 100
Santurtzi 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
SD Deusto Santurtzi

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick SD Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Santurtzi let in goals in 73% of their last 30 matches.

H2H data points to 2.60 goals as a typical output.

SD Deusto's goal record stands at 57% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Recent resilience: SD Deusto stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

SD Deusto VS Santurtzi
0.88 Goals Scored 0.63
1.75 Goals Conceded 1
88% Over 1.5 50%
50% Over 2.5 25%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

SD Deusto

(Home)
09 May
Aurrera de Vitoria
2 : 1
SD Deusto
03 May
SD Deusto
1 : 3
Leioa
26 Apr
Eibar C
5 : 0
SD Deusto
18 Apr
SD Deusto
3 : 0
Anorga
11 Apr
SCD Durango
1 : 1
SD Deusto
Page 1 of 6

Santurtzi

(Away)
09 May
SCD Durango
4 : 1
Santurtzi
03 May
Santurtzi
2 : 1
UD Aretxabaleta
26 Apr
Zamudio
1 : 1
Santurtzi
19 Apr
Zarautz KE
0 : 1
Santurtzi
12 Apr
Santurtzi
0 : 3
Real Sociedad C
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Portugalete34246470:2978
2Leioa34187950:3461
3Derio341771054:4058
4Lagun Onak341761154:3457
5Touring KE34169947:3557
6Real Sociedad C341741348:3955
7San Ignacio341671137:2755
8Aurrera de Vitoria341661242:4154
9Alaves C341581157:4053
10UD Aretxabaleta341361556:6145
11SCD Durango3411111235:3644
12Santurtzi349121332:4539
13Eibar C34991644:5336
14Pasaia34991626:4636
15Anorga341141937:5934
16Zamudio34961942:5933
17Zarautz KE34862030:6030
18SD Deusto34672126:4925
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026 (Play Offs)