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SD Deusto vs Santurtzi

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Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

19' Event
Hierro I.
48' Event
Corral A.

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026 game between SD Deusto and Santurtzi finished 0-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Santurtzi.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
SD Deusto
20%
Draws
40%
Santurtzi
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Santurtzi carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 21%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
SD Deusto Clean Sheet 68%
Santurtzi Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric SD Deusto Santurtzi
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 6 8
Draws 6 10
Losses 18 11
Goals Scored 0.83 0.97
Goals Conceded 1.4 1.34
Expected Goals (xG) 1.27 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 21, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
SD Deusto vs Santurtzi
0:2
Nov 9, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Santurtzi vs SD Deusto
1:1
Feb 1, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Santurtzi vs SD Deusto
1:1
Sep 21, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
SD Deusto vs Santurtzi
2:1
Feb 16, 2020 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Santurtzi vs SD Deusto
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

SD Deusto Compare

Avg xG / game 0.98
Avg xA / game 0.64

Santurtzi Compare

Top Goalscorer Hierro I.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Corral A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

SD Deusto 41 / 100
Santurtzi 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
SD Deusto Santurtzi

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick SD Deusto Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Santurtzi let in goals in 76% of their last 29 matches.

H2H data points to 2.60 goals as a typical output.

Santurtzi's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

SD Deusto's goal record stands at 57% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Scoring Trends

SD Deusto VS Santurtzi
1.29 Goals Scored 0.63
1.86 Goals Conceded 1.25
100% Over 1.5 50%
71% Over 2.5 38%
29% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

SD Deusto

(Home)
09 May
Aurrera de Vitoria
2 : 1
SD Deusto
03 May
SD Deusto
1 : 3
Leioa
26 Apr
Eibar C
5 : 0
SD Deusto
18 Apr
SD Deusto
3 : 0
Anorga
11 Apr
SCD Durango
1 : 1
SD Deusto
Page 1 of 6

Santurtzi

(Away)
13 Sept
Santurtzi
2 : 1
SCD Durango
05 Sept
Beasain
2 : 0
Santurtzi
14 Aug
Eibar C
3 : 1
Santurtzi
12 Aug
Santurtzi
0 : 0
SD Erandio
09 May
SCD Durango
4 : 1
Santurtzi
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Portugalete 34 24 6 4 70:29 78
2 Leioa 34 18 7 9 50:34 61
3 Derio 34 17 7 10 54:40 58
4 Lagun Onak 34 17 6 11 54:34 57
5 Touring KE 34 16 9 9 47:35 57
6 Real Sociedad C 34 17 4 13 48:39 55
7 San Ignacio 34 16 7 11 37:27 55
8 Aurrera de Vitoria 34 16 6 12 42:41 54
9 Alaves C 34 15 8 11 57:40 53
10 UD Aretxabaleta 34 13 6 15 56:61 45
11 SCD Durango 34 11 11 12 35:36 44
12 Santurtzi 34 9 12 13 32:45 39
13 Eibar C 34 9 9 16 44:53 36
14 Pasaia 34 9 9 16 26:46 36
15 Anorga 34 11 4 19 37:59 34
16 Zamudio 34 9 6 19 42:59 33
17 Zarautz KE 34 8 6 20 30:60 30
18 SD Deusto 34 6 7 21 26:49 25
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026 (Play Offs)