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Senador Guiomard vs Placido de Castro

Brazil Brazil

Acreano 2025
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Senador Guiomard play Placido de Castro in the Acreano 2025. It looks like a close match. Recently, Senador Guiomard averaged 1.23 goals scored and 1.45 conceded. Placido de Castro averaged 1.43 goals scored and 2.67 conceded. In past meetings, Senador Guiomard won 2, Placido de Castro won 2, and they drew 1. Their last match on Feb 1, 2025 ended 6:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 2.19 for Senador Guiomard and 0.94 for Placido de Castro. This points to a Senador Guiomard double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Senador Guiomard
24%
Draws
29%
Placido de Castro
Draw rate projection: 24% Favored: Senador Guiomard

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

77% / High Confidence
  • Senador Guiomard picked up more points recently compared to Placido de Castro.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (2.19 vs 0.94 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 59%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%
Over 1.5 Goals 80%
Over 2.5 Goals 59%
Over 3.5 Goals 35%
Over 4.5 Goals 18%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 59%
Senador Guiomard Clean Sheet 24%
Placido de Castro Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 72%
Second Half Goal 76%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Senador Guiomard Placido de Castro
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 9 6
Draws 10 6
Losses 12 18
Goals Scored 1.23 1.43
Goals Conceded 1.45 2.67
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 0.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 3.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 1, 2025 Acreano
Senador Guiomard vs Placido de Castro
6:2
Apr 4, 2023 Acreano
Placido de Castro vs Senador Guiomard
6:1
Mar 8, 2022 Acreano
Placido de Castro vs Senador Guiomard
2:2
May 8, 2011 Acreano
Placido de Castro vs Senador Guiomard
0:2
Apr 16, 2011 Acreano
Senador Guiomard vs Placido de Castro
1:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Senador Guiomard Compare

Top Goalscorer Marcus Vinicius
1 Goals
Assists Leader Jojo
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Placido de Castro Compare

Top Goalscorer Lucas Galvao
1 Goals
Assists Leader Juninho
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.57
Avg xA / game 0.35

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Senador Guiomard 47 / 100
Placido de Castro 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Senador Guiomard Placido de Castro

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Senador Guiomard or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +20.3%
2.56
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +11.5%
1.89
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Senador Guiomard attacking → ← attacking Placido de Castro

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Senador Guiomard scored in 71% of their last 31 games.

Placido de Castro let in goals in 83% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 5.00 goals.

Senador Guiomard went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Placido de Castro lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

37 Points in last 5 24
1.13 Goals expected (xG) 0.63
1.25 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 3.25

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Vasco da Gama AC752013:517
2Senador Guiomard742113:814
3Independencia Futebol Clube733112:412
4Galvez732214:911
5SC Humaita724112:810
6Rio Branco AC721413:167
7Sao Francisco FC (AC)71063:163
8Placido de Castro70258:22-1