Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Serpa vs FC Barreirense

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group D 2024/2025
Our Tip

Match Events

32' Event
Desembargador G.
81' Event
Lucas Santana
90' Event
Lopes G.

AI Match Summary

Serpa in this Campeonato de Portugal - Group D 2024/2025 matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Serpa.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

22%
Serpa
28%
Draws
50%
FC Barreirense
Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: FC Barreirense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence
  • Serpa have won more games recently than FC Barreirense.
  • 50% — that's where the model lands on FC Barreirense taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 36.400000000000006%
Serpa Clean Sheet 22%
FC Barreirense Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Serpa FC Barreirense
Matches Played 37 30
Wins 18 5
Draws 8 8
Losses 11 17
Goals Scored 1 0
Goals Conceded 1.13 0

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 26, 2025 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
Serpa vs FC Barreirense
2:1
Sep 1, 2024 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
FC Barreirense vs Serpa
1:1
Apr 7, 2024 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
FC Barreirense vs Serpa
1:2
Dec 17, 2023 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
Serpa vs FC Barreirense
0:1
May 8, 2022 Campeonato de Portugal - Group A
Serpa vs FC Barreirense
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Serpa Compare

Top Goalscorer Lucas Santana
1 Goals
Assists Leader Lopes G.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

FC Barreirense Compare

Top Goalscorer Desembargador G.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0
Avg xA / game 0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Serpa 24 / 100
FC Barreirense 59 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Serpa FC Barreirense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick BAR Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Serpa's goal record stands at 81% scoring rate across 37 recent games.

FC Barreirense let in goals in 93% of their last 30 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.60 goals per match.

FC Barreirense's recent record shows 2 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Serpa VS -
1 Goals Scored 0
1.13 Goals Conceded 0
63% Over 1.5 0%
50% Over 2.5 0%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Serpa

(Home)
18 Apr
Oriental
2 : 1
Serpa
12 Apr
Serpa
0 : 1
Alverca B
04 Apr
O Elvas CAD
3 : 2
Serpa
22 Mar
Serpa
0 : 3
Juv. Evora
15 Mar
Louletano
2 : 1
Serpa
Page 1 of 8

FC Barreirense

(Away)
13 Apr
FC Barreirense
1 : 2
Moncarapachense
06 Apr
Amora
1 : 0
FC Barreirense
29 Mar
Estrela Vendas Novas
2 : 3
FC Barreirense
16 Mar
FC Barreirense
1 : 1
Lagoa
09 Mar
Fabril do Barreiro
1 : 1
FC Barreirense
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Lusitano GC26184457:1458
2Amora26176341:1957
3Sintrense26164639:2652
4Moncarapachense26156539:1951
5Louletano26155644:2050
6Serpa26136742:2745
7Estrela da Amadora B26791035:3130
8Lagoa26791026:3530
9Industria26851335:4229
10Fabril do Barreiro26691121:3227
11Moura AC26751427:5026
12Operario26651522:4323
13FC Barreirense26571431:4722
14Estrela Vendas Novas26122312:665
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2024/2025 (Promotion Group)