Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Serra vs Desportiva Ferroviaria

Brazil Brazil

Capixaba Estádio Municipal Roberto Siqueira Costa, Serra
Our Tip

Match Events

39'
Wilian Simoes
42' Event
Patrick
(Penalty)
46'
Sub
Robert In: Jhonatan Marino
Out: Robert

AI Match Summary

The Capixaba game between Serra and Desportiva Ferroviaria finished 3-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Serra.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Serra
39%
Draws
30%
Desportiva Ferroviaria
Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Serra come out ahead of Desportiva Ferroviaria on wins alone.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 61.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.400000000000002%
Serra Clean Sheet 21%
Desportiva Ferroviaria Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Serra Desportiva Ferroviaria
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 17 11
Draws 3 7
Losses 12 12
Goals Scored 1.13 1
Goals Conceded 1.25 0.8
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 0.80

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 16, 2026 Capixaba
Serra vs Desportiva Ferroviaria
3:0
May 16, 2025 Copa Espirito Santo
Serra vs Desportiva Ferroviaria
0:2
Jan 19, 2024 Capixaba
Serra vs Desportiva Ferroviaria
0:1
Feb 24, 2023 Capixaba
Desportiva Ferroviaria vs Serra
0:2
Feb 12, 2022 Capixaba
Serra vs Desportiva Ferroviaria
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Serra Compare

Top Goalscorer Pepeu
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Desportiva Ferroviaria Compare

Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Serra 32 / 100
Desportiva Ferroviaria 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Serra Desportiva Ferroviaria

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick DES Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Serra found the back of the net in 78% of recent matches (32 games).

Desportiva Ferroviaria has conceded goals in 73% of their last 30 outings.

These sides typically produce 2.00 goals when they meet.

Solid form: Serra remains unbeaten in 1 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Serra VS Desportiva Ferroviaria
1.13 Goals Scored 1
1.25 Goals Conceded 0.8
63% Over 1.5 60%
63% Over 2.5 20%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Serra

(Home)
06 Jun
Rio Branco ES
1 : 0
Serra
30 May
Serra
1 : 1
Porto Vitoria
24 May
Rio Branco-VN
1 : 0
Serra
20 May
Vitoria ES
3 : 2
Serra
09 May
Serra
2 : 3
Vilavelhense
Page 1 of 7

Desportiva Ferroviaria

(Away)
05 Mar
Desportiva Ferroviaria
0 : 1
Sport Recife
27 Feb
Vilavelhense
1 : 1
Desportiva Ferroviaria
22 Feb
Desportiva Ferroviaria
1 : 1
Vilavelhense
17 Feb
Sampaio Correa FE
1 : 2
Desportiva Ferroviaria
12 Feb
Forte
0 : 1
Desportiva Ferroviaria
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Vitoria ES962114:420
2Serra942310:614
3Vilavelhense94148:1013
4Rio Branco ES934210:613
5Porto Vitoria93427:513
6Desportiva Ferroviaria932410:1111
7Real Noroeste93249:1311
8Forte92525:411
9Capixaba SC93156:1310
10Rio Branco-VN90548:155
Promotion - Capixaba (Play Offs)
Relegation - Capixaba 2 2027 (Main)