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Sertanense vs Arronches Benfica Prediction & H2H Stats

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group C 2024/2025
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AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Campeonato de Portugal - Group C 2024/2025 matchup, with the score ending 0-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

20%
Sertanense
20%
Draws
60%
Arronches Benfica
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Arronches Benfica

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

60% / High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Arronches Benfica lately — more wins on the board than Sertanense.
  • Win probability leans Arronches Benfica's way, sitting at 40%.
  • Regular Campeonato de Portugal - Group C 2024/2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 26.8%
Sertanense Clean Sheet 22%
Arronches Benfica Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sertanense Arronches Benfica
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 4 15
Draws 11 9
Losses 14 6
Goals Scored 0.69 1.1
Goals Conceded 1.21 0.7
Expected Goals (xG) 0.75 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 9, 2025 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Arronches Benfica vs Sertanense
1:0
Nov 10, 2024 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Sertanense vs Arronches Benfica
0:0
Jan 15, 2023 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Sertanense vs Arronches Benfica
0:1
Sep 18, 2022 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Arronches Benfica vs Sertanense
0:3

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sertanense 29 / 100
Arronches Benfica 50 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sertanense Arronches Benfica

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Arronches Benfica Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Difficult form: Arronches Benfica registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Sertanense found the back of the net in 52% of recent matches (29 games).

Arronches Benfica let in goals in 50% of their last 30 matches.

H2H data points to 1.25 goals as a typical output.

Scoring Trends

Sertanense VS Arronches Benfica
0.75 Goals Scored 1
1.13 Goals Conceded 0.75
63% Over 1.5 50%
25% Over 2.5 25%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Sertanense

(Home)
27 Sept
O Elvas CAD
2 : 0
Sertanense
13 Sept
Sertanense
1 : 1
Malveira
30 Aug
Alcains
1 : 0
Sertanense
23 Aug
Sertanense
1 : 3
Mortagua FC
16 Aug
Nogueirense
1 : 1
Sertanense
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Arronches Benfica

(Away)
13 Apr
Arronches Benfica
0 : 1
O Elvas CAD
06 Apr
Fatima
1 : 0
Arronches Benfica
29 Mar
Arronches Benfica
2 : 1
Pero Pinheiro
16 Mar
Alverca B
2 : 0
Arronches Benfica
09 Mar
Arronches Benfica
1 : 0
Sertanense
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 O Elvas CAD 26 20 5 1 41:10 65
2 Fatima 26 14 7 5 30:12 49
3 Arronches Benfica 26 13 9 4 27:17 48
4 GD Peniche 26 10 9 7 31:23 39
5 Os Marialvas 26 9 10 7 30:28 37
6 Mortagua FC 26 8 13 5 23:21 37
7 Marinhense 26 9 9 8 24:21 36
8 Alverca B 26 9 8 9 28:25 35
9 SB Castelo Branco 26 8 10 8 23:21 34
10 SC Pombal 26 8 8 10 29:34 32
11 Uniao de Coimbra 26 6 7 13 26:44 25
12 Sertanense 26 4 9 13 23:33 21
13 Alcains 26 4 6 16 17:36 18
14 Pero Pinheiro 26 2 6 18 12:39 12
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2024/2025 (Promotion Group)