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Sertanense vs Pero Pinheiro

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group C 2024/2025
Sertanense Logo

Sertanense

1 - 0
FT
Pero Pinheiro Logo

Pero Pinheiro

Our Tip

Match Events

90' Event
Freitas Goncalves M. J.
(Penalty)
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Sertanense in this Campeonato de Portugal - Group C 2024/2025 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Sertanense.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Sertanense
30%
Draws
23%
Pero Pinheiro
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Sertanense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Sertanense lately — more wins on the board than Pero Pinheiro.
  • 47% — that's where the model lands on Sertanense taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30%
Sertanense Clean Sheet 68%
Pero Pinheiro Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sertanense Pero Pinheiro
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 5 4
Draws 12 6
Losses 15 20
Goals Scored 0.88 0.47
Goals Conceded 1.25 1.47
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 0.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 16, 2025 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Sertanense vs Pero Pinheiro
1:0
Oct 6, 2024 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Pero Pinheiro vs Sertanense
2:1
Apr 2, 2023 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Sertanense vs Pero Pinheiro
1:1
Dec 11, 2022 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Pero Pinheiro vs Sertanense
2:3
May 1, 2022 Campeonato de Portugal - Group A
Pero Pinheiro vs Sertanense
0:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sertanense 95 / 100
Pero Pinheiro 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sertanense Pero Pinheiro

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Sertanense Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Pero Pinheiro conceded in 83% of 30 recent games.

H2H data points to 2.20 goals as a typical output.

Difficult form: Pero Pinheiro registered 4 defeats in their last 5 games.

Attacking prowess: Sertanense scored in 59% of their last 32 outings.

Scoring Trends

Sertanense VS Pero Pinheiro
0.75 Goals Scored 0.25
1 Goals Conceded 2.25
50% Over 1.5 88%
25% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Sertanense

(Home)
13 Sept
Sertanense
1 : 1
Malveira
30 Aug
Alcains
1 : 0
Sertanense
23 Aug
Sertanense
1 : 3
Mortagua FC
16 Aug
Nogueirense
1 : 1
Sertanense
13 Apr
SB Castelo Branco
1 : 0
Sertanense
Page 1 of 7

Pero Pinheiro

(Away)
13 Apr
Os Marialvas
1 : 1
Pero Pinheiro
06 Apr
Pero Pinheiro
0 : 2
Mortagua FC
29 Mar
Arronches Benfica
2 : 1
Pero Pinheiro
16 Mar
Pero Pinheiro
0 : 2
O Elvas CAD
09 Mar
Fatima
4 : 0
Pero Pinheiro
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 O Elvas CAD 26 20 5 1 41:10 65
2 Fatima 26 14 7 5 30:12 49
3 Arronches Benfica 26 13 9 4 27:17 48
4 GD Peniche 26 10 9 7 31:23 39
5 Os Marialvas 26 9 10 7 30:28 37
6 Mortagua FC 26 8 13 5 23:21 37
7 Marinhense 26 9 9 8 24:21 36
8 Alverca B 26 9 8 9 28:25 35
9 SB Castelo Branco 26 8 10 8 23:21 34
10 SC Pombal 26 8 8 10 29:34 32
11 Uniao de Coimbra 26 6 7 13 26:44 25
12 Sertanense 26 4 9 13 23:33 21
13 Alcains 26 4 6 16 17:36 18
14 Pero Pinheiro 26 2 6 18 12:39 12
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2024/2025 (Promotion Group)