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Shakhter Karagandy vs AKAS

Kazakhstan Kazakhstan

First League 2025 Shakhter Stadion, Karaganda
Our Tip

Match Events

4' Event
Tattybaev A.
11'
Shatskiy I.
11' Event
Primberdiev S.
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

The First League 2025 game between Shakhter Karagandy and AKAS finished 4-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Shakhter Karagandy.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

74%
Shakhter Karagandy
20%
Draws
6%
AKAS
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Shakhter Karagandy

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

74% / High Confidence
  • Shakhter Karagandy carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Shakhter Karagandy are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.4%
Shakhter Karagandy Clean Sheet 20%
AKAS Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Shakhter Karagandy AKAS
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 25 12
Draws 3 4
Losses 3 14
Goals Scored 2.74 1.53
Goals Conceded 0.55 1.4
Expected Goals (xG) 2.04 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 11, 2025 First League
AKAS vs Shakhter Karagandy
1:1
Jun 13, 2025 First League
Shakhter Karagandy vs AKAS
4:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Shakhter Karagandy Compare

Top Goalscorer Tattybaev A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Kerimzhanov O.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.57
Avg xA / game 1.02

AKAS Compare

Top Goalscorer Sautov A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Shakhter Karagandy 85 / 100
AKAS 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Shakhter Karagandy AKAS

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Shakhter Karagandy Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Shakhter Karagandy scored in 94% of their last 31 games.

AKAS has conceded goals in 80% of their last 30 outings.

Historical meetings average 4.00 goals per match.

Shakhter Karagandy has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Shakhter Karagandy VS -
2.88 Goals Scored 0
0.5 Goals Conceded 0
88% Over 1.5 0%
50% Over 2.5 0%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Shakhter Karagandy

(Home)
17 Sept
Shakhter Karagandy
0 : 0
Taraz
11 Sept
Jaiyq
1 : 2
Shakhter Karagandy
03 Sept
Shakhter Karagandy
4 : 0
Khan Tengri
27 Aug
Yelimay Semey 2
0 : 3
Shakhter Karagandy
21 Aug
Shakhter Karagandy
4 : 0
FC Astana 2
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AKAS

(Away)
24 Oct
AKAS
1 : 2
Kaspij Aktau
16 Oct
Taraz
3 : 1
AKAS
02 Oct
AKAS
1 : 2
Akademiya Ontustik
26 Sept
Zhetisay
2 : 1
AKAS
18 Sept
AKAS
1 : 1
Altai
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Kaspij Aktau 26 22 2 2 74:27 68
2 Ertis Pavlodar 26 19 4 3 71:20 61
3 Altai 26 17 4 5 54:23 55
4 Shakhter Karagandy 26 16 5 5 61:34 53
5 Zhetisay 26 13 3 10 44:35 42
6 Kairat Almaty 2 26 12 4 10 58:42 40
7 Akademiya Ontustik 26 12 3 11 44:44 39
8 Taraz 26 10 5 11 43:38 35
9 AKAS 26 10 3 13 42:39 33
10 FC Ekibastuz 26 8 4 14 36:60 28
11 SD Family 26 7 2 17 33:75 23
12 Khan Tengri 26 5 3 18 27:55 18
13 Aktobe 2 26 3 7 16 34:65 16
14 Turkistan 26 2 3 21 16:80 9
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