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Shimal vs Cebrayil

Azerbaijan Azerbaijan

I Liqa 2025/2026
Shimal Logo

Shimal

3 - 2
FT
Cebrayil Logo

Cebrayil

Our Tip

Match Events

28' Event
Achimi D.
45' Event
Osmanov N.
64' Event
Achimi D.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Shimal in this I Liqa 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 3-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Shimal.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

58%
Shimal
20%
Draws
22%
Cebrayil
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Shimal

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

58% / Very High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Cebrayil lately — more wins on the board than Shimal.
  • Shimal are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Regular I Liqa 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 3 times recently and Shimal have taken 2 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.6%
Shimal Clean Sheet 18%
Cebrayil Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Shimal Cebrayil
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 6 8
Draws 5 4
Losses 19 18
Goals Scored 0.25 1.25
Goals Conceded 1.38 1.88
Expected Goals (xG) 0.25 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.38 1.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 21, 2026 I Liqa
Cebrayil vs Shimal
2:3
Feb 24, 2026 I Liqa
Shimal vs Cebrayil
3:2
Nov 20, 2025 I Liqa
Cebrayil vs Shimal
7:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Shimal Compare

Top Goalscorer Kalbaliyev C.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Osmanov N.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.19
Avg xA / game 0.13

Cebrayil Compare

Top Goalscorer Achimi D.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Shimal 85 / 100
Cebrayil 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Shimal Cebrayil

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick SHI Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Cebrayil conceded in 80% of 30 recent games.

Historical meetings average 5.67 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Shimal stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Cebrayil lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Shimal VS Cebrayil
0.25 Goals Scored 1.25
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.88
50% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Shimal

(Home)
27 May
Shimal
2 : 1
Lokbatan
21 May
Cebrayil
2 : 3
Shimal
14 May
Shimal
0 : 1
Difai Agsu
06 May
Shimal
1 : 1
MOIK Baku
29 Apr
Safa Baku
0 : 0
Shimal
Page 1 of 6

Cebrayil

(Away)
21 May
Cebrayil
2 : 3
Shimal
15 May
Safa Baku
1 : 0
Cebrayil
07 May
Cebrayil
2 : 3
Baku Sporting
30 Apr
Sabail
6 : 0
Cebrayil
22 Apr
Cebrayil
2 : 1
Mingachevir
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Safa Baku 27 16 9 2 52:21 57
2 Mingachevir 27 15 6 6 55:27 51
3 Sabail 27 14 8 5 46:21 50
4 Baku Sporting 27 13 10 4 40:23 49
5 Sahdag Qusar 27 12 7 8 36:27 43
6 MOIK Baku 27 9 6 12 33:40 33
7 Zaqatala PFK 27 8 4 15 27:44 28
8 Cebrayil 27 7 3 17 40:56 24
9 Shimal 27 5 5 17 23:61 20
10 Difai Agsu 27 4 6 17 28:60 18
Promotion - Premier League (Main)
Promotion - Premier League 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - I Liqa 2025/2026 (Relegation)