Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Shmona vs Hapoel Jerusalem

Israel Israel

Ligat ha'Al 2025/2026 Kiryat Shmona Municipal Stadium, Kiryat Shmona
Our Tip

Match Events

24'
Ljubisavljevic N.
45'
David S.
52'
Sub
Agvadish O. In: Malmud N.
Out: Agvadish O.

AI Match Summary

Shmona in this Ligat ha'Al 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 3-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Shmona.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

26%
Shmona
15%
Draws
59%
Hapoel Jerusalem
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Hapoel Jerusalem

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

59% / Medium Confidence
  • Shmona have won more games recently than Hapoel Jerusalem.
  • Model gives Hapoel Jerusalem a 59% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Ligat ha'Al 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Shmona Clean Sheet 18%
Hapoel Jerusalem Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Shmona Hapoel Jerusalem
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 13 11
Draws 4 7
Losses 12 11
Goals Scored 1.55 1.21
Goals Conceded 1.45 1.31
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 5, 2026 Ligat ha'Al
Hapoel Jerusalem vs Shmona
4:2
Apr 19, 2026 Ligat ha'Al
Shmona vs Hapoel Jerusalem
3:1
Feb 21, 2026 Ligat ha'Al
Hapoel Jerusalem vs Shmona
0:1
Nov 29, 2025 Ligat ha'Al
Shmona vs Hapoel Jerusalem
1:2
Apr 5, 2025 Ligat ha'Al
Hapoel Jerusalem vs Shmona
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Shmona Compare

Top Goalscorer Ugarriza A.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Mordechai Y.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

Hapoel Jerusalem Compare

Top Goalscorer Eshata A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Shmona 15 / 100
Hapoel Jerusalem 77 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Shmona Hapoel Jerusalem

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Hapoel Jerusalem Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 3.20 goals per match.

Attacking prowess: Shmona scored in 79% of their last 29 outings.

Defensive concern: Hapoel Jerusalem conceded in 66% of 29 recent games.

Recent resilience: Shmona stayed unbeaten in 1 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Shmona VS Hapoel Jerusalem
1.75 Goals Scored 1.5
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.5
75% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Shmona

(Home)
19 Sept
H. Beer Sheva
1 : 0
Shmona
14 Sept
Shmona
0 : 4
Maccabi Haifa
05 Sept
Hapoel Jerusalem
4 : 2
Shmona
29 Aug
Shmona
2 : 0
Ironi Tiberias
22 Aug
Maccabi Petah Tikva
2 : 1
Shmona
Page 1 of 6

Hapoel Jerusalem

(Away)
19 Sept
Maccabi Petah Tikva
2 : 4
Hapoel Jerusalem
15 Sept
Ironi Tiberias
2 : 2
Hapoel Jerusalem
05 Sept
Hapoel Jerusalem
4 : 2
Shmona
29 Aug
Hapoel Petah Tikva
1 : 0
Hapoel Jerusalem
23 Aug
Hapoel Jerusalem
2 : 5
Maccabi Tel Aviv
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
7 Netanya 33 14 6 13 59:63 48
8 Shmona 33 11 7 15 50:53 40
9 Ironi Tiberias 33 12 8 13 45:56 36
10 Hapoel Haifa 33 8 10 15 39:51 34
11 Sakhnin 33 8 10 15 28:49 34
12 Hapoel Jerusalem 33 7 10 16 26:43 31
13 SC Ashdod 33 6 10 17 38:62 28
14 Maccabi Bnei Raina 33 6 4 23 26:69 22
Relegation - Leumit League (Main)