Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Sittard vs AZ Alkmaar

Netherlands Netherlands

Eredivisie Fortuna Sittard Stadion, Sittard
Our Tip

Match Events

5'
Romeny O.
46'
Sub
Weslley Patati In: Stengs C.
Out: Weslley Patati
46'
Sub
Kwakman D. In: Hornkamp J.
Out: Kwakman D.

AI Match Summary

The Eredivisie game between Sittard and AZ Alkmaar finished 0-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward AZ Alkmaar.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

35%
Sittard
15%
Draws
50%
AZ Alkmaar
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: AZ Alkmaar

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

50% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and AZ Alkmaar come out ahead of Sittard on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans AZ Alkmaar's way, sitting at 70%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 100%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 69%
Over 4.5 Goals 31%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77.4%
Sittard Clean Sheet 10%
AZ Alkmaar Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sittard AZ Alkmaar
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 12 15
Draws 4 8
Losses 14 7
Goals Scored 1.57 2.23
Goals Conceded 2 1.37
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 2.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 22, 2026 Eredivisie
Sittard vs AZ Alkmaar
0:2
Apr 4, 2026 Eredivisie
AZ Alkmaar vs Sittard
2:0
Dec 21, 2025 Eredivisie
Sittard vs AZ Alkmaar
4:3
Feb 23, 2025 Eredivisie
AZ Alkmaar vs Sittard
1:0
Oct 6, 2024 Eredivisie
Sittard vs AZ Alkmaar
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sittard Compare

Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66

AZ Alkmaar Compare

Top Goalscorer Hornkamp J.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 2.45
Avg xA / game 1.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sittard 14 / 100
AZ Alkmaar 65 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sittard AZ Alkmaar

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick AZ Alkmaar Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sittard found the back of the net in 87% of recent matches (30 games).

AZ Alkmaar's defensive record shows goals conceded in 70% of 30 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.60 goals when they meet.

Solid form: Sittard remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Sittard VS AZ Alkmaar
1.88 Goals Scored 3.13
2.25 Goals Conceded 0.75
100% Over 1.5 100%
88% Over 2.5 63%
75% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Sittard

(Home)
12 Sept
Sittard
1 : 5
Ajax
06 Sept
Den Haag
2 : 3
Sittard
28 Aug
Groningen
2 : 3
Sittard
22 Aug
Sittard
0 : 2
AZ Alkmaar
15 Aug
Sittard
3 : 1
Cambuur
Page 1 of 6

AZ Alkmaar

(Away)
11 Sept
AZ Alkmaar
1 : 1
Willem II
06 Sept
Heerenveen
2 : 3
AZ Alkmaar
29 Aug
AZ Alkmaar
5 : 2
G.A. Eagles
22 Aug
Sittard
0 : 2
AZ Alkmaar
15 Aug
Utrecht
1 : 4
AZ Alkmaar
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 PSV 6 5 1 0 22:7 16
2 AZ Alkmaar 6 5 1 0 17:6 16
3 Feyenoord 6 4 2 0 20:7 14
4 Ajax 6 4 1 1 19:7 13
5 Twente 6 4 1 1 12:5 13
6 Excelsior 6 3 1 2 13:7 10
7 Sittard 6 3 1 2 12:14 10
8 G.A. Eagles 6 2 3 1 15:13 9
9 Groningen 6 2 2 2 12:13 8
10 Nijmegen 6 2 1 3 11:12 7
11 Heerenveen 6 1 3 2 7:9 6
12 Sparta Rotterdam 6 1 2 3 10:13 5
13 Telstar 6 1 2 3 5:11 5
14 Utrecht 6 1 2 3 11:19 5
15 Cambuur 6 1 1 4 9:18 4
16 Zwolle 6 1 1 4 6:17 4
17 Willem II 6 0 2 4 6:19 2
18 Den Haag 6 0 1 5 6:16 1
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Eredivisie (Conference League - Play Offs)
Relegation - Eredivisie (Relegation - Play Offs)
Relegation - Eerste Divisie 2027/2028 (Main)