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Skanste vs AFA Olaine

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Nakotnes liga 2025 Rīgas Hanzas vidusskolas stadions, Riga
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Match Events

37' Event
Ruja K.
(Penalty)
43' Event
Cernovs K.
58' Event
Bekeris O.
Assist: Palameiks P.

AI Match Summary

The Nakotnes liga 2025 game between Skanste and AFA Olaine finished 2-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward AFA Olaine.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Skanste
20%
Draws
33%
AFA Olaine
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Skanste

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Skanste carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Skanste are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Regular Nakotnes liga 2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77%
Skanste Clean Sheet 19%
AFA Olaine Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Skanste AFA Olaine
Matches Played 33 30
Wins 15 9
Draws 4 4
Losses 14 17
Goals Scored 1.91 1.7
Goals Conceded 1.76 3.33
Expected Goals (xG) 1.48 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 18, 2025 1. Liga
AFA Olaine vs Skanste
3:0
Jun 14, 2025 1. Liga
Skanste vs AFA Olaine
2:3
Nov 2, 2024 1. Liga
AFA Olaine vs Skanste
1:0
Jul 20, 2024 1. Liga
Skanste vs AFA Olaine
3:2
Aug 5, 2023 1. Liga
AFA Olaine vs Skanste
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Skanste Compare

Top Goalscorer Bekeris O.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.74

AFA Olaine Compare

Top Goalscorer Cernovs K.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Skanste 85 / 100
AFA Olaine 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Skanste AFA Olaine

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Skanste Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

AFA Olaine's defensive record shows goals conceded in 93% of 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.20 goals.

Attacking prowess: Skanste scored in 73% of their last 33 outings.

Recent resilience: Skanste stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Skanste VS -
1.75 Goals Scored 0
1.5 Goals Conceded 0
100% Over 1.5 0%
38% Over 2.5 0%
38% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Skanste

(Home)
14 Sept
RFS 2
3 : 4
Skanste
07 Sept
Riga FC 2
3 : 2
Skanste
30 Aug
Skanste
6 : 2
Tukums 2000 2
23 Aug
Super Nova 2
1 : 1
Skanste
08 Aug
Skanste
5 : 1
Rezekne
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AFA Olaine

(Away)
08 Nov
Rezekne
3 : 4
AFA Olaine
01 Nov
AFA Olaine
1 : 1
Leevon PPK
25 Oct
Marupe
5 : 1
AFA Olaine
18 Oct
AFA Olaine
3 : 0
Skanste
04 Oct
Riga FC 2
7 : 2
AFA Olaine
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Ogre United 26 18 4 4 66:20 58
2 Alberts JDFS 26 17 7 2 60:24 58
3 Riga Mariners 26 18 4 4 74:34 58
4 JFK Ventspils 26 11 10 5 40:29 43
5 RFS 2 26 11 8 7 46:31 41
6 Skanste 26 11 7 8 36:39 40
7 Leevon PPK 26 10 6 10 40:40 36
8 Marupe 26 10 2 14 30:33 32
9 Rezekne 26 8 7 11 36:57 31
10 FK Smiltene 26 8 4 14 46:48 28
11 Riga FC 2 26 6 6 14 35:43 24
12 Tukums 2000 2 26 7 2 17 37:60 23
13 AFA Olaine 26 6 4 16 39:88 22
14 Augsdaugavas 26 3 5 18 19:58 14
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