Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Sondrio vs Pavia

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group B
Our Tip

Match Events

6' Event
Longo P.
22' Event
Poesio C.
50' Event
Pandullo G.

AI Match Summary

Pavia in this Serie D - Group B matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Pavia.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Sondrio
6%
Draws
4%
Pavia
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Sondrio

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Attack-wise there's a gap: Sondrio at 1.88 per game, Pavia at 1.13.
  • Win probability leans Sondrio's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular Serie D - Group B form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.2%
Sondrio Clean Sheet 18%
Pavia Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sondrio Pavia
Matches Played 30 32
Wins 9 9
Draws 7 10
Losses 14 13
Goals Scored 1.88 1.13
Goals Conceded 1.5 0.63
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.50 0.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 22, 2026 Serie D - Group B
Sondrio vs Pavia
1:2
Oct 19, 2025 Serie D - Group B
Pavia vs Sondrio
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sondrio Compare

Top Goalscorer Longo P.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94

Pavia Compare

Top Goalscorer Poesio C.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Pandullo G.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sondrio 85 / 100
Pavia 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sondrio Pavia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick SON Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sondrio scored in 70% of their last 30 games.

Pavia has conceded goals in 63% of their last 32 outings.

These sides typically produce 2.50 goals when they meet.

Solid form: Sondrio remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Sondrio VS Pavia
1.88 Goals Scored 1.13
1.5 Goals Conceded 0.63
88% Over 1.5 50%
75% Over 2.5 25%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Sondrio

(Home)
02 May
Folgore Caratese
5 : 1
Sondrio
26 Apr
Sondrio
5 : 1
Real Calepina
19 Apr
Oltrepo
0 : 3
Sondrio
12 Apr
Sondrio
1 : 1
Caldiero Terme
02 Apr
Breno
2 : 1
Sondrio
Page 1 of 6

Pavia

(Away)
25 Jul
Pavia
0 : 4
AlbinoLeffe
19 Jul
Pisa
6 : 1
Pavia
10 May
Breno
0 : 1
Pavia
03 May
Chievo
2 : 1
Pavia
26 Apr
Pavia
3 : 0
Ciserano-Bergamo
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Folgore Caratese341911458:2768
2USD Casatese341613549:2861
3Chievo341861052:4360
4AC Milan U23341681062:3756
5AC Leon341411944:3453
6Brusaporto341561341:3851
7Oltrepo341581138:3650
8Scanzorosciate341114941:3347
9Villa Valle341381343:4647
10Ciserano-Bergamo3411131033:3146
11Caldiero Terme341015950:4045
12Real Calepina341191442:4742
13Castellanzese3410111341:3941
14Breno349111439:5138
15Pavia349101536:4737
16Varesina347151238:4436
17Sondrio34871937:6431
18Vogherese34282421:80-17
Promotion - Serie D - Group B (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group B (Play Out)