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Sondrio vs Pavia

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group B 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

6' Event
Longo P.
22' Event
Poesio C.
50' Event
Pandullo G.

AI Match Summary

Pavia in this Serie D - Group B 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Pavia.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

46%
Sondrio
35%
Draws
19%
Pavia
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Sondrio

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Sondrio lately — more wins on the board than Pavia.
  • Win probability leans Sondrio's way, sitting at 80%.
  • Regular Serie D - Group B 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 29%
Over 4.5 Goals 13%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.4%
Sondrio Clean Sheet 17%
Pavia Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sondrio Pavia
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 9 8
Draws 7 10
Losses 14 11
Goals Scored 1.23 0.9
Goals Conceded 1.67 1.31
Expected Goals (xG) 1.67 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 22, 2026 Serie D - Group B
Sondrio vs Pavia
1:2
Oct 19, 2025 Serie D - Group B
Pavia vs Sondrio
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sondrio Compare

Top Goalscorer Longo P.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.28
Avg xA / game 0.83

Pavia Compare

Top Goalscorer Poesio C.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Pandullo G.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sondrio 75 / 100
Pavia 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sondrio Pavia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Sondrio Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sondrio scored in 70% of their last 30 games.

H2H data points to 2.50 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: Sondrio stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Defensive concern: Pavia conceded in 59% of 29 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Sondrio VS Pavia
1.83 Goals Scored 1.25
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.5
83% Over 1.5 63%
67% Over 2.5 50%
33% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Sondrio

(Home)
02 May
Folgore Caratese
5 : 1
Sondrio
26 Apr
Sondrio
5 : 1
Real Calepina
19 Apr
Oltrepo
0 : 3
Sondrio
12 Apr
Sondrio
1 : 1
Caldiero Terme
02 Apr
Breno
2 : 1
Sondrio
Page 1 of 6

Pavia

(Away)
20 Sept
Sant'Angelo
0 : 0
Pavia
16 Sept
Pavia
0 : 0
Solbiatese
06 Sept
Pavia
0 : 0
Crema
25 Jul
Pavia
0 : 4
AlbinoLeffe
19 Jul
Pisa
6 : 1
Pavia
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Folgore Caratese 34 19 11 4 58:27 68
2 USD Casatese 34 16 13 5 49:28 61
3 Chievo 34 18 6 10 52:43 60
4 AC Milan U23 34 16 8 10 62:37 56
5 AC Leon 34 14 11 9 44:34 53
6 Brusaporto 34 15 6 13 41:38 51
7 Oltrepo 34 15 8 11 38:36 50
8 Scanzorosciate 34 11 14 9 41:33 47
9 Villa Valle 34 13 8 13 43:46 47
10 Ciserano-Bergamo 34 11 13 10 33:31 46
11 Caldiero Terme 34 10 15 9 50:40 45
12 Real Calepina 34 11 9 14 42:47 42
13 Castellanzese 34 10 11 13 41:39 41
14 Breno 34 9 11 14 39:51 38
15 Pavia 34 9 10 15 36:47 37
16 Varesina 34 7 15 12 38:44 36
17 Sondrio 34 8 7 19 37:64 31
18 Vogherese 34 2 8 24 21:80 -17
Promotion - Serie D - Group B 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group B 2025/2026 (Play Out)