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Stadium Background

Spain U21 vs Italy U21

Europe Europe

Euro U21 2025 City Arena Trnava, Trnava
Spain U21 Logo

Spain U21

1 - 1
FT
Italy U21 Logo

Italy U21

Our Tip

Match Events

40'
Ghilardi D.
53' Event
Rodriguez J.
Assist: Moro R.
57'
Fazzini J.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Euro U21 2025 matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Spain U21
15%
Draws
38%
Italy U21
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Spain U21

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Spain U21 have won more games recently than Italy U21.
  • Win probability leans Spain U21's way, sitting at 90%.
  • European nights carry their own weight — this Euro U21 2025 fixture won't be treated like a routine game.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.8%
Spain U21 Clean Sheet 68%
Italy U21 Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Spain U21 Italy U21
Matches Played 32 31
Wins 22 19
Draws 5 7
Losses 5 5
Goals Scored 2.44 2.29
Goals Conceded 0.81 0.97
Expected Goals (xG) 2.00 1.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 17, 2025 Euro U21
Spain U21 vs Italy U21
1:1
Mar 27, 2021 Euro U21
Spain U21 vs Italy U21
0:0
Jun 16, 2019 Euro U21
Italy U21 vs Spain U21
3:1
Sep 1, 2017 Friendly International
Spain U21 vs Italy U21
3:0
Jun 27, 2017 Euro U21
Spain U21 vs Italy U21
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Spain U21 Compare

Top Goalscorer Rodriguez J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 1

Italy U21 Compare

Top Goalscorer Pisilli N.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 0.94

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Spain U21 95 / 100
Italy U21 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Spain U21 Italy U21

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Spain U21 Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Spain U21 scored in 84% of their last 32 games.

Solid form: Spain U21 remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.

Historical meetings average 2.60 goals per match.

Italy U21's defensive record shows goals conceded in 55% of 31 matches.

Scoring Trends

Spain U21 VS Italy U21
2.88 Goals Scored 2.5
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.13
100% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 75%
50% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Spain U21

(Home)
31 Mar
Spain U21
2 : 0
Kosovo U21
27 Mar
Cyprus U21
0 : 7
Spain U21
18 Nov
Romania U21
0 : 2
Spain U21
14 Nov
Spain U21
7 : 0
San Marino U21
14 Oct
Spain U21
2 : 1
Finland U21
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Italy U21

(Away)
08 Jun
Italy U21
1 : 0
Albania U21
31 Mar
Sweden U21
0 : 4
Italy U21
26 Mar
Italy U21
4 : 0
North Macedonia U21
18 Nov
Montenegro U21
1 : 4
Italy U21
14 Nov
Poland U21
2 : 1
Italy U21
Page 1 of 7

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Spain U21 3 2 1 0 6:4 7
2 Italy U21 3 2 1 0 3:1 7
3 Slovakia U21 3 1 0 2 4:5 3
4 Romania U21 3 0 0 3 2:5 0
Promotion - Euro U21 2025 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Germany U21 3 3 0 0 9:3 9
2 England U21 3 1 1 1 4:3 4
3 Czech Republic U21 3 1 0 2 5:7 3
4 Slovenia U21 3 0 1 2 0:5 1
Promotion - Euro U21 2025 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Portugal U21 3 2 1 0 9:0 7
2 France U21 3 2 1 0 7:3 7
3 Georgia U21 3 1 0 2 4:8 3
4 Poland U21 3 0 0 3 2:11 0
Promotion - Euro U21 2025 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 4)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Denmark U21 3 2 1 0 7:5 7
2 Netherlands U21 3 1 1 1 5:4 4
3 Ukraine U21 3 1 0 2 4:5 3
4 Finland U21 3 0 2 1 4:6 2
Promotion - Euro U21 2025 (Play Offs)