Sport Picks
Match Events
40'
40'
Ghilardi D.
53'
53'
Rodriguez J.
Assist: Moro R.
57'
57'
Fazzini J.
AI Match Summary
Neither side could be separated in this Euro U21 2025 matchup, with the score ending 1-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
90%
6%
4%
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Spain U21
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
95%
/ Very High Confidence
- Spain U21 have won more games recently than Italy U21.
- Win probability leans Spain U21's way, sitting at 90%.
- European nights carry their own weight — this Euro U21 2025 fixture won't be treated like a routine game.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Spain U21 Clean Sheet 68%
Italy U21 Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Spain U21 | Italy U21 |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 29 |
| Wins | 20 | 18 |
| Draws | 5 | 7 |
| Losses | 5 | 4 |
| Goals Scored | 2.88 | 2.5 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.88 | 1.13 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 2.88 | 2.50 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 0.88 | 1.13 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Jun 17, 2025 Euro U21
Spain U21 vs Italy U21
1:1
Mar 27, 2021 Euro U21
Spain U21 vs Italy U21
0:0
Jun 16, 2019 Euro U21
Italy U21 vs Spain U21
3:1
Sep 1, 2017 Friendly International
Spain U21 vs Italy U21
3:0
Jun 27, 2017 Euro U21
Spain U21 vs Italy U21
3:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Spain U21 Compare
Top Goalscorer Rodriguez J.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 2.22
Avg xA / game 1.44
Italy U21 Compare
Top Goalscorer Pisilli N.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 2.27
Avg xA / game 1.39
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Spain U21 95 / 100
Italy U21 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Spain U21 Italy U21
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick SPA Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Spain U21 scored in 83% of their last 30 games.
Solid form: Spain U21 remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.
Historical meetings average 2.60 goals per match.
Italy U21's defensive record shows goals conceded in 55% of 29 matches.
Scoring Trends
Spain U21 VS Italy U21
2.88 Goals Scored 2.5
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.13
100% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 75%
50% Over 3.5 50%
Recent Form & Match History
Spain U21
(Home) 31 Mar
Spain U21
2 : 0 Kosovo U21
27 Mar
Cyprus U21
0 : 7 Spain U21
18 Nov
Romania U21
0 : 2 Spain U21
14 Nov
Spain U21
7 : 0 San Marino U21
14 Oct
Spain U21
2 : 1 Finland U21
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31 Mar
Spain U21
2 : 0 Kosovo U21
14 Nov
Spain U21
7 : 0 San Marino U21
14 Oct
Spain U21
2 : 1 Finland U21
10 Oct
Spain U21
4 : 1 Norway U21
05 Sept
Spain U21
3 : 0 Cyprus U21
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Italy U21
(Away) 08 Jun
Italy U21
1 : 0 Albania U21
31 Mar
Sweden U21
0 : 4 Italy U21
26 Mar
Italy U21
4 : 0 North Macedonia U21
18 Nov
Montenegro U21
1 : 4 Italy U21
14 Nov
Poland U21
2 : 1 Italy U21
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31 Mar
Sweden U21
0 : 4 Italy U21
18 Nov
Montenegro U21
1 : 4 Italy U21
14 Nov
Poland U21
2 : 1 Italy U21
09 Sept
North Macedonia U21
0 : 1 Italy U21
22 Jun
Germany U21
3 : 2 Italy U21
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League Standings (Group 1)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spain U21 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6:4 | 7 |
| 2 | Italy U21 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3:1 | 7 |
| 3 | Slovakia U21 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4:5 | 3 |
| 4 | Romania U21 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2:5 | 0 |
Promotion - Euro U21 2025 (Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 2)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Germany U21 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9:3 | 9 |
| 2 | England U21 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4:3 | 4 |
| 3 | Czech Republic U21 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5:7 | 3 |
| 4 | Slovenia U21 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0:5 | 1 |
Promotion - Euro U21 2025 (Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 3)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Portugal U21 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9:0 | 7 |
| 2 | France U21 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7:3 | 7 |
| 3 | Georgia U21 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4:8 | 3 |
| 4 | Poland U21 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2:11 | 0 |
Promotion - Euro U21 2025 (Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 4)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Denmark U21 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7:5 | 7 |
| 2 | Netherlands U21 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5:4 | 4 |
| 3 | Ukraine U21 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4:5 | 3 |
| 4 | Finland U21 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4:6 | 2 |
Promotion - Euro U21 2025 (Play Offs)
