Sport Picks
Spartak Moscow vs FK Rostov
Russia
Russian Cup 2025/2026 Lukoil Arena, Moscow 
Match Events
7'
7'
Ugalde M.
Assist: Solari P.
40'
40'
Sako O.
46'
46'
Sub
Chistyakov D. In: Melekhin V.
Out: Chistyakov D.
AI Match Summary
This match ends 1-2, with FK Rostov advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
40%
33%
27%
Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Spartak Moscow
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
70%
/ Medium Confidence
- Spartak Moscow carry the better recent record into this one.
- Win probability leans Spartak Moscow's way, sitting at 40%.
- Spartak Moscow have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
- Historical meetings favor FK Rostov, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.8%
Spartak Moscow Clean Sheet 20%
FK Rostov Clean Sheet 11%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Spartak Moscow | FK Rostov |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 27 |
| Wins | 18 | 8 |
| Draws | 4 | 6 |
| Losses | 6 | 13 |
| Goals Scored | 1.13 | 1.25 |
| Goals Conceded | 1 | 1.38 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.13 | 1.25 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.00 | 1.38 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Apr 12, 2026 Premier League
FK Rostov vs Spartak Moscow
1:1
Feb 21, 2026 Club Friendly
Spartak Moscow vs FK Rostov
5:2
Oct 18, 2025 Premier League
Spartak Moscow vs FK Rostov
1:1
Sep 18, 2025 Russian Cup
Spartak Moscow vs FK Rostov
1:2
Jul 30, 2025 Russian Cup
FK Rostov vs Spartak Moscow
0:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Spartak Moscow Compare
Top Goalscorer Ugalde M.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56
FK Rostov Compare
Top Goalscorer Shantaliy D.
1 Goals Assists Leader Vakhania I.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Spartak Moscow 40 / 100
FK Rostov 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Spartak Moscow FK Rostov
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick SPA Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Spartak Moscow found the back of the net in 86% of recent matches (28 games).
H2H data points to 3.20 goals as a typical output.
FK Rostov has conceded goals in 78% of their last 27 outings.
Spartak Moscow has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Spartak Moscow VS FK Rostov
1.13 Goals Scored 1.25
1 Goals Conceded 1.38
63% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Spartak Moscow
(Home) 25 Jul
Spartak Moscow
3 : 0 Rodina Moscow
18 Jul
Zenit St Petersburg
2 : 1 Spartak Moscow
11 Jul
Lokomotiv Moscow
2 : 0 Spartak Moscow
08 Jul
Spartak Moscow
0 : 0 Rubin Kazan
04 Jul
Spartak Moscow
3 : 2 Krylya Sovetov Samara
Page 1 of 6
25 Jul
Spartak Moscow
3 : 0 Rodina Moscow
08 Jul
Spartak Moscow
0 : 0 Rubin Kazan
04 Jul
Spartak Moscow
3 : 2 Krylya Sovetov Samara
02 Jul
Spartak Moscow
1 : 0 S. Kostroma
24 May
Spartak Moscow
2 : 1 Krasnodar
Page 1 of 4
FK Rostov
(Away) 26 Jul
Orenburg
2 : 1 FK Rostov
15 Jul
FK Rostov
2 : 1 Fakel Voronezh
11 Jul
Krasnodar
3 : 3 FK Rostov
07 Jul
Fakel Voronezh
3 : 1 FK Rostov
03 Jul
FK Rostov
0 : 0 Dynamo Stavropol
Page 1 of 6
26 Jul
Orenburg
2 : 1 FK Rostov
11 Jul
Krasnodar
3 : 3 FK Rostov
07 Jul
Fakel Voronezh
3 : 1 FK Rostov
11 May
Akron Togliatti
1 : 3 FK Rostov
02 May
Dynamo Makhachkala
1 : 2 FK Rostov
Page 1 of 3
League Standings (Group 1)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zenit St Petersburg | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 19:5 | 18 |
| 2 | Orenburg | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 6:14 | 8 |
| 3 | Rubin Kazan | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 5:9 | 6 |
| 4 | Akhmat Grozny | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 8:10 | 4 |
Promotion - Russian Cup 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Russian Cup 2025/2026 (Regions Path - Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 2)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Krasnodar | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 14:5 | 14 |
| 2 | Dynamo Moscow | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 11:6 | 11 |
| 3 | Krylya Sovetov Samara | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 7:11 | 8 |
| 4 | PFC Sochi | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 8:18 | 3 |
Promotion - Russian Cup 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Russian Cup 2025/2026 (Regions Path - Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 3)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spartak Moscow | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 13:5 | 13 |
| 2 | Dynamo Makhachkala | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 9:7 | 13 |
| 3 | FK Rostov | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 8:9 | 7 |
| 4 | Pari Nizhny Novgorod | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 4:13 | 3 |
Promotion - Russian Cup 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Russian Cup 2025/2026 (Regions Path - Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 4)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CSKA Moscow | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 9:5 | 13 |
| 2 | Lokomotiv Moscow | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 10:4 | 13 |
| 3 | Baltika | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 6:9 | 5 |
| 4 | Akron Togliatti | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 6:13 | 5 |
Promotion - Russian Cup 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Russian Cup 2025/2026 (Regions Path - Play Offs)
