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Sri Lanka vs Maldives

World World

Friendly International 2025
Our Tip

Match Events

67' Event
Naiz H.
90' Event
Kelaart O.

AI Match Summary

The Friendly International 2025 game between Sri Lanka and Maldives finished 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

59%
Sri Lanka
15%
Draws
26%
Maldives
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Sri Lanka

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

59% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Sri Lanka come out ahead of Maldives on wins alone.
  • 59% — that's where the model lands on Sri Lanka taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 26.4%
Sri Lanka Clean Sheet 68%
Maldives Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sri Lanka Maldives
Matches Played 27 29
Wins 10 9
Draws 5 3
Losses 12 17
Goals Scored 0.93 0.93
Goals Conceded 1.26 1.66
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 9, 2025 Friendly International
Sri Lanka vs Maldives
1:1
Sep 6, 2025 Friendly International
Sri Lanka vs Maldives
0:3
Jun 14, 2022 Asian Cup
Maldives vs Sri Lanka
1:0
Nov 14, 2021 Friendly International
Maldives vs Sri Lanka
0:0
Nov 9, 2021 Friendly International
Sri Lanka vs Maldives
4:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sri Lanka Compare

Top Goalscorer Kelaart O.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

Maldives Compare

Top Goalscorer Naiz H.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sri Lanka 77 / 100
Maldives 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sri Lanka Maldives

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Sri Lanka Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Maldives let in goals in 76% of their last 29 matches.

H2H data points to 2.80 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Sri Lanka remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Away concern: Maldives has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Sri Lanka VS Maldives
1.63 Goals Scored 0.88
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.63
88% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Sri Lanka

(Home)
08 Jun
Sri Lanka
4 : 1
Bhutan
31 Mar
Chinese Taipei
1 : 3
Sri Lanka
18 Nov
Sri Lanka
0 : 4
Thailand
14 Oct
Turkmenistan
2 : 1
Sri Lanka
09 Oct
Sri Lanka
1 : 0
Turkmenistan
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Maldives

(Away)
07 Jun
Maldives
1 : 1
Bangladesh U23
04 Jun
Maldives
0 : 3
Pakistan
01 Jun
Maldives
0 : 1
Afghanistan
31 Mar
Maldives
2 : 1
Timor-Leste
18 Nov
Maldives
0 : 2
Philippines
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