Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Stade Malien vs Diarra

Mali Mali

Coupe du Mali
Sat, May 16, 2026
0 - 1
05:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 0-1. This leg finished 0-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

44%
Stade Malien
20%
Draws
36%
Diarra
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Stade Malien

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

44% / Low Confidence
  • Attack-wise there's a gap: Stade Malien at 1.24 per game, Diarra at 1.17.
  • Win probability leans Stade Malien's way, sitting at 40%.
  • Both sides arrive with similar form. In a knockout tie, that makes this genuinely unpredictable.
  • Historical meetings favor Diarra, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 60.6%
Stade Malien Clean Sheet 20%
Diarra Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Stade Malien Diarra
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 15 15
Draws 8 5
Losses 6 9
Goals Scored 1.24 1.17
Goals Conceded 0.59 0.9
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 13, 2026 Premiere Division
Diarra vs Stade Malien
0:2
May 16, 2026 Coupe du Mali
Stade Malien vs Diarra
0:1
Mar 29, 2026 Premiere Division
Stade Malien vs Diarra
2:0
May 15, 2025 Premiere Division
Diarra vs Stade Malien
0:3
Jan 23, 2025 Premiere Division
Stade Malien vs Diarra
1:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Stade Malien 40 / 100
Diarra 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Stade Malien Diarra

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Stade Malien Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Stade Malien has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Games between these two average 2.20 goals.

Stade Malien found the back of the net in 59% of recent matches (29 games).

Diarra has conceded goals in 48% of their last 29 outings.

Scoring Trends

Stade Malien VS Diarra
1.75 Goals Scored 0.75
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.25
88% Over 1.5 50%
50% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Stade Malien

(Home)
06 Sept
Colombe
0 : 0
Stade Malien
13 Jun
Diarra
0 : 2
Stade Malien
09 Jun
Stade Malien
2 : 1
Binga
04 Jun
Bakaridjan
0 : 2
Stade Malien
31 May
Stade Malien
2 : 2
USFAS Bamako
Page 1 of 6

Diarra

(Away)
05 Sept
Diarra
1 : 0
Nations FC
13 Jun
Diarra
0 : 2
Stade Malien
09 Jun
Bougouba
2 : 6
Diarra
05 Jun
Diarra
1 : 2
Djoliba
02 Jun
Foot Elite
0 : 1
Diarra
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Stade Malien 9
AS Sofa 0
USFAS Bamako 0
Diarra 1
Real Bamako 1
Mali Coura 0
Djoliba 3
Tombouctou 1
Semi-finals
Stade Malien 0
Diarra 1
Real Bamako 0
Djoliba 1
Final
Diarra 0
Djoliba 2