Sport Picks

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Stenhousemuir vs Motherwell

Scotland Scotland

League Cup Ochilview Park, Stenhousemuir
Sun, Aug 16, 2026
1 - 0
01:00 PM
Our Tip

Match Events

24'
Said I.
45'
Bilham K.
46'
Sub
Said I. In: Longelo E.
Out: Said I.

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 1-0. The second leg ended 1-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

64%
Stenhousemuir
15%
Draws
21%
Motherwell
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Stenhousemuir

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

64% / High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Stenhousemuir come out ahead of Motherwell on wins alone.
  • 64% — that's where the model lands on Stenhousemuir taking it.
  • Stenhousemuir have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Motherwell, who have won 1 of the last 2 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.4%
Stenhousemuir Clean Sheet 20%
Motherwell Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Stenhousemuir Motherwell
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 19 10
Draws 6 5
Losses 3 14
Goals Scored 1.5 1.45
Goals Conceded 0.71 1.59
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 16, 2026 League Cup
Stenhousemuir vs Motherwell
1:0
Jul 19, 2025 League Cup
Stenhousemuir vs Motherwell
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Stenhousemuir Compare

Top Goalscorer O'Reilly E.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72

Motherwell Compare

Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Stenhousemuir 76 / 100
Motherwell 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Stenhousemuir Motherwell

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Stenhousemuir Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Stenhousemuir scored in 89% of their last 28 outings.

Motherwell's defensive record shows goals conceded in 66% of 29 matches.

Stenhousemuir has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Difficult form: Motherwell registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Stenhousemuir VS Motherwell
1.25 Goals Scored 1.25
0.5 Goals Conceded 1.63
50% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Stenhousemuir

(Home)
15 Sept
Stenhousemuir
1 : 0
Partick
11 Sept
Stenhousemuir
0 : 3
Hearts
04 Sept
Livingston
0 : 1
Stenhousemuir
29 Aug
Stenhousemuir
3 : 1
Inverness
22 Aug
Queen's Park
0 : 2
Stenhousemuir
Page 1 of 6

Motherwell

(Away)
15 Sept
Motherwell
0 : 4
Aberdeen
05 Sept
Rangers
1 : 0
Motherwell
02 Sept
Motherwell
3 : 0
Dundee Utd
30 Aug
St. Mirren
3 : 3
Motherwell
27 Aug
Freiburg
4 : 1
Motherwell
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/8-finals
Stenhousemuir 1
Motherwell 0
Hearts 6
Inverness 2
Dunfermline 1
Ross County 2
Hibernian 1
Partick 0
Rangers 5
St. Mirren 1
Dundee Utd 0
Celtic 4
Kilmarnock 3
Ayr 2
Aberdeen 3
Dundee FC 0
Quarter-finals
Stenhousemuir 0
Hearts 3
Ross County 0
Hibernian 3
Rangers 3
Celtic 0
Kilmarnock 1
Aberdeen 2
Semi-finals
Hearts -
Hibernian -
Rangers -
Aberdeen -
Final
TBD -
TBD -