Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Sturm Graz vs LASK Linz

Austria Austria

Bundesliga 2025/2026 Merkur-Arena, Graz
Our Tip

Match Events

6'
Tornich J.
18'
Tornich J.
18'
Tornich J.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Bundesliga 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Sturm Graz
20%
Draws
40%
LASK Linz
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to LASK Linz lately — more wins on the board than Sturm Graz.
  • 40% — that's where the model lands on LASK Linz taking it.
  • Regular Bundesliga 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.2%
Sturm Graz Clean Sheet 10%
LASK Linz Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sturm Graz LASK Linz
Matches Played 31 31
Wins 15 20
Draws 11 4
Losses 5 7
Goals Scored 1.9 2.71
Goals Conceded 1.06 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 2.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 13, 2026 Bundesliga
Sturm Graz vs LASK Linz
2:1
Apr 22, 2026 Bundesliga
Sturm Graz vs LASK Linz
1:1
Apr 19, 2026 Bundesliga
LASK Linz vs Sturm Graz
1:1
Nov 23, 2025 Bundesliga
Sturm Graz vs LASK Linz
1:3
Aug 1, 2025 Bundesliga
LASK Linz vs Sturm Graz
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sturm Graz Compare

Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

LASK Linz Compare

Top Goalscorer Usor M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.82
Avg xA / game 1.11

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sturm Graz 10 / 100
LASK Linz 75 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sturm Graz LASK Linz

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick LASK Linz Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sturm Graz's goal record stands at 84% scoring rate across 31 recent games.

LASK Linz has conceded goals in 71% of their last 31 outings.

Historical meetings average 2.60 goals per match.

Solid form: Sturm Graz remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Sturm Graz VS LASK Linz
1.25 Goals Scored 2.88
1.13 Goals Conceded 1
75% Over 1.5 88%
25% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Sturm Graz

(Home)
20 Sept
Salzburg
3 : 0
Sturm Graz
16 Sept
Sturm Graz
0 : 0
Rennes
13 Sept
Sturm Graz
2 : 1
LASK Linz
05 Sept
ASK Voitsberg
1 : 4
Sturm Graz
30 Aug
Rapid Vienna
3 : 1
Sturm Graz
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LASK Linz

(Away)
20 Sept
Hartberg
3 : 3
LASK Linz
13 Sept
Sturm Graz
2 : 1
LASK Linz
08 Sept
AEK
1 : 0
LASK Linz
05 Sept
Deutschlandsberger Wonisch
1 : 6
LASK Linz
01 Sept
Wolfsberger AC
1 : 3
LASK Linz
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 LASK Linz 32 17 7 8 56:42 39
2 Sturm Graz 32 16 8 8 51:35 37
3 Salzburg 32 13 9 10 56:41 29
4 Austria Vienna 32 14 5 13 45:50 29
5 Rapid Vienna 32 12 8 12 36:41 27
6 Hartberg 32 10 12 10 40:40 25
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Promotion - Bundesliga 2025/2026 (Conference League - Play Offs)