Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Sutton vs Southend

England England

National League 2025/2026 VBS Community Stadium, London
Our Tip

Match Events

14'
Taylor J.
46'
Sub
Rodari D. In: Harris J. J.
Out: Rodari D.
48'
Gubbins J.

AI Match Summary

The National League 2025/2026 game between Sutton and Southend finished 0-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Southend.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

60%
Sutton
22%
Draws
18%
Southend
Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: Sutton

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

82% / Very High Confidence
  • Sutton haven't matched Southend's recent run of results.
  • Sutton are the model's pick here, at 60%.
  • Regular National League 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.6%
Sutton Clean Sheet 16%
Southend Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sutton Southend
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 8 14
Draws 8 6
Losses 12 9
Goals Scored 1.13 1.88
Goals Conceded 1 1.75
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.00 1.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 6, 2026 National League
Sutton vs Southend
0:3
Dec 30, 2025 National League
Southend vs Sutton
1:0
Apr 5, 2025 National League
Sutton vs Southend
1:1
Sep 14, 2024 National League
Southend vs Sutton
1:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sutton Compare

Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Southend Compare

Top Goalscorer Scott-Morriss G.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Spasov S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sutton 57 / 100
Southend 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sutton Southend

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick SUT Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sutton's goal record stands at 79% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

Defensive concern: Southend conceded in 76% of 29 recent games.

Games between these two average 2.50 goals.

Sutton has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Sutton VS Southend
1.13 Goals Scored 1.88
1 Goals Conceded 1.75
75% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Sutton

(Home)
25 Jul
Sutton
2 : 0
Horsham FC
21 Jul
Sutton
1 : 1
Walton & Hersham
18 Jul
Sutton
1 : 2
AFC Wimbledon
14 Jul
Tonbridge
0 : 2
Sutton
11 Jul
AFC Totton
2 : 2
Sutton
Page 1 of 6

Southend

(Away)
25 Jul
Southend
1 : 2
Leyton Orient
22 Jul
Southend
1 : 3
Northampton
18 Jul
Southend
1 : 1
West Ham
14 Jul
Southend
1 : 2
Cambridge Utd
17 May
Southend
1 : 0
Wealdstone
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1York City463394114:41108
2Rochdale46337688:41106
3Carlisle46298987:5195
4Boreham Wood462791095:5890
5Scunthorpe4623131077:6282
6Southend4623121183:4781
7Forest Green4623121182:5281
8Halifax4620101669:6670
9Hartlepool4618141454:5968
10Woking4616151569:5463
11Tamworth4617111863:7162
12Boston United4615141763:6759
13Altrincham461762355:6557
14Solihull Moors4614141871:7256
15Wealdstone4615112067:7456
16Yeovil461562548:6851
17Eastleigh4613112257:8050
18Gateshead461482454:9050
19Sutton4611142159:7947
20Aldershot461372669:8746
21Brackley4610122440:7542
22Morecambe469112666:10338
23Braintree468122638:7636
24Truro468102842:7234
Promotion - League Two (Main)
Promotion - National League 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - National League 2025/2026 (Play Offs)