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Swieqi vs Naxxar Lions

Malta Malta

FA Trophy
Our Tip

Match Events

6' Event
Pahama N.
33' Event
Vinicius Baiano
46' Event
Vitinho

AI Match Summary

The FA Trophy game between Swieqi and Naxxar Lions finished 2-4, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Naxxar Lions.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Swieqi
6%
Draws
4%
Naxxar Lions
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Swieqi

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Swieqi come out ahead of Naxxar Lions on wins alone.
  • Model gives Swieqi a 90% chance of winning this.
  • It's a cup tie, so expect more urgency than a normal FA Trophy game.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77.4%
Swieqi Clean Sheet 20%
Naxxar Lions Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Swieqi Naxxar Lions
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 15 11
Draws 6 7
Losses 9 12
Goals Scored 2 0.88
Goals Conceded 0.75 1.25
Expected Goals (xG) 2.00 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.75 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 27, 2026 FA Trophy
Swieqi vs Naxxar Lions
2:4
Jan 7, 2023 Challenge League
Naxxar Lions vs Swieqi
1:3
Feb 10, 2021 FA Trophy
Naxxar Lions vs Swieqi
6:1
Jan 23, 2021 Challenge League
Swieqi vs Naxxar Lions
0:2
Oct 3, 2020 Challenge League
Naxxar Lions vs Swieqi
1:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Swieqi Compare

Top Goalscorer Mawuena S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Okle K.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 1

Naxxar Lions Compare

Top Goalscorer Pahama N.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Vinicius Baiano
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Swieqi 85 / 100
Naxxar Lions 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Swieqi Naxxar Lions

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick SWI Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Swieqi's goal record stands at 87% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Defensive concern: Naxxar Lions conceded in 83% of 30 recent games.

H2H data points to 4.80 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Swieqi remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Swieqi VS Naxxar Lions
2 Goals Scored 0.88
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 0%

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/32-finals
Tarxien-
TBD-
TBD-
Ghajnsielem-
Pembroke-
TBD-
TBD-
Valletta-
Hamrun-
TBD-
Victoria Hotspurs3
Xaghra1
Fgura-
TBD-
Sirens1
Santa Lucia2
Birkirkara-
TBD-
TBD-
Victoria Wanderers-
Pieta-
TBD-
TBD-
Mtarfa-
Floriana-
TBD-
TBD-
Marsaxlokk-
Zabbar-
TBD-
Melita0
Xewkija1
St. Andrews3
Vittoriosa0
TBD-
Gzira-
Hibernians-
TBD-
TBD-
Gudja-
Zebbug0
Qala Saints5
TBD-
Mgarr-
Mosta FC-
TBD-
TBD-
Mqabba FC-
Zurrieq-
TBD-
TBD-
Kercem Ajax-
Qormi1
Balzan FC4
Nadur1
Birzebbuga4
Sliema-
TBD-
TBD-
Swieqi-
Marsa-
TBD-
TBD-
Naxxar Lions-
1/16-finals
Tarxien4
Ghajnsielem0
Pembroke0
Valletta1
Hamrun5
Victoria Hotspurs0
Fgura2
Santa Lucia1
Birkirkara3
Victoria Wanderers1
Pieta5
Mtarfa0
Floriana1
Marsaxlokk0
Zabbar1
Xewkija0
St. Andrews0
Gzira2
Hibernians3
Gudja1
Qala Saints0
Mgarr2
Mosta FC2
Mqabba FC1
Zurrieq4
Kercem Ajax0
Balzan FC1
Birzebbuga2
Sliema1
Swieqi2
Marsa0
Naxxar Lions3
1/8-finals
Tarxien0
Valletta1
Hamrun5
Fgura0
Birkirkara2
Pieta0
Floriana0
Zabbar1
Gzira3
Hibernians2
Mgarr0
Mosta FC3
Zurrieq3
Birzebbuga0
Swieqi2
Naxxar Lions4
Quarter-finals
Valletta3
Hamrun1
Birkirkara2
Zabbar1
Gzira2
Mosta FC1
Zurrieq1
Naxxar Lions2
Semi-finals
Valletta3
Birkirkara1
Gzira2
Naxxar Lions1
Final
Valletta2
Gzira1