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Tahiti vs New Caledonia

World World

Friendly International 2023
Our Tip

Match Events

30' Event
Tinirauarii R.
33' Event
Xowi M.
46'
Sub
Paama M. In: Tau S.
Out: Paama M.

AI Match Summary

Tahiti in this Friendly International 2023 matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Tahiti.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

22%
Tahiti
28%
Draws
50%
New Caledonia
Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: New Caledonia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence
  • Tahiti have won more games recently than New Caledonia.
  • New Caledonia are the model's pick here, at 50%.
  • Regular Friendly International 2023 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.4%
Tahiti Clean Sheet 17%
New Caledonia Clean Sheet 19%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tahiti New Caledonia
Matches Played 28 23
Wins 13 12
Draws 4 2
Losses 11 9
Goals Scored 1 0.88
Goals Conceded 1.86 0.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.86 0.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 21, 2025 World Championship
New Caledonia vs Tahiti
3:0
Mar 24, 2023 Friendly International
Tahiti vs New Caledonia
2:1
Mar 21, 2023 Friendly International
Tahiti vs New Caledonia
0:2
Jul 15, 2019 Pacific Games
Tahiti vs New Caledonia
0:3
Mar 24, 2018 Friendly International
Tahiti vs New Caledonia
4:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Tahiti Compare

Top Goalscorer Tinirauarii R.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

New Caledonia Compare

Top Goalscorer Xowi M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tahiti 23 / 100
New Caledonia 49 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tahiti New Caledonia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick CAL Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 3.60 goals per match.

Tahiti found the back of the net in 64% of recent matches (28 games).

New Caledonia has conceded goals in 61% of their last 23 outings.

Recent resilience: Tahiti stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Tahiti VS New Caledonia
1 Goals Scored 0.88
1.86 Goals Conceded 0.5
86% Over 1.5 38%
71% Over 2.5 25%
14% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Tahiti

(Home)
21 Mar
New Caledonia
3 : 0
Tahiti
18 Nov
Tahiti
2 : 0
Vanuatu
15 Nov
Samoa
0 : 3
Tahiti
11 Oct
New Zealand
3 : 0
Tahiti
30 Jun
Tahiti
2 : 1
Fiji
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New Caledonia

(Away)
27 Mar
New Caledonia
0 : 1
Jamaica
08 Oct
Gibraltar
0 : 2
New Caledonia
24 Mar
New Caledonia
0 : 3
New Zealand
21 Mar
New Caledonia
3 : 0
Tahiti
17 Nov
Fiji
1 : 1
New Caledonia
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