Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Tallinna Kalev vs Tartu JK Welco

Estonia Estonia

Esiliiga Kadrioru Staadion, Tallinn
Our Tip

Match Events

18' Event
De Pizzol O.
Assist: Sikk A.
68' Event
Mihhailov V.
Assist: Sikk A.

AI Match Summary

Tallinna Kalev in this Esiliiga matchup, with the score ending 2-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Tallinna Kalev.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

18%
Tallinna Kalev
22%
Draws
60%
Tartu JK Welco
Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: Tartu JK Welco

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

82% / Very High Confidence
  • Tartu JK Welco have won more games recently than Tallinna Kalev.
  • Tartu JK Welco are the model's pick here, at 60%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 85%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 100%
Over 2.5 Goals 85%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75%
Tallinna Kalev Clean Sheet 10%
Tartu JK Welco Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tallinna Kalev Tartu JK Welco
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 12 16
Draws 4 6
Losses 13 7
Goals Scored 2.13 3.5
Goals Conceded 2.13 1.25
Expected Goals (xG) 2.13 3.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.13 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 9, 2026 Esiliiga
Tallinna Kalev vs Tartu JK Welco
2:0
Mar 5, 2026 Esiliiga
Tartu JK Welco vs Tallinna Kalev
3:0
Jul 15, 2023 Estonian Cup
Tartu JK Welco vs Tallinna Kalev
0:4
Oct 31, 2021 Esiliiga
Tartu JK Welco vs Tallinna Kalev
2:3
Oct 16, 2021 Esiliiga
Tallinna Kalev vs Tartu JK Welco
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Tallinna Kalev Compare

Top Goalscorer De Pizzol O.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Mihhailov V.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.64
Avg xA / game 1.06

Tartu JK Welco Compare

Avg xG / game 3.18
Avg xA / game 1.94

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tallinna Kalev 18 / 100
Tartu JK Welco 56 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tallinna Kalev Tartu JK Welco

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick TAR Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:3
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Tallinna Kalev's goal record stands at 79% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Tartu JK Welco has conceded goals in 79% of their last 29 outings.

Games between these two average 2.80 goals.

Tallinna Kalev went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Tallinna Kalev VS Tartu JK Welco
2.13 Goals Scored 3.5
2.13 Goals Conceded 1.25
100% Over 1.5 100%
100% Over 2.5 75%
63% Over 3.5 75%

Recent Form & Match History

Tallinna Kalev

(Home)
23 Jul
Tammeka Tartu U19
0 : 8
Tallinna Kalev
18 Jul
Tallinna Kalev
3 : 1
Nomme Utd U21
11 Jul
Levadia U21
3 : 2
Tallinna Kalev
03 Jul
Tallinna Kalev
3 : 3
Maardu Linnameeskond
21 Jun
Tallinna Kalev
5 : 1
Kalju U21
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Tartu JK Welco

(Away)
23 Jul
Rumori Calcio II
0 : 12
Tartu JK Welco
18 Jul
Tartu JK Welco
0 : 2
FC Tallinn
13 Jul
Maardu Linnameeskond
1 : 8
Tartu JK Welco
02 Jul
Tartu JK Welco
2 : 2
Viimsi JK
21 Jun
Tartu JK Welco
5 : 2
Nomme Utd U21
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Tartu JK Welco20143362:2645
2Viimsi JK20105534:1935
3Flora Tallinn U2120104651:3834
4Elva2093837:3330
5Levadia U2120901139:3527
6Maardu Linnameeskond2075830:4726
7Tallinna Kalev2074940:4025
8FC Tallinn20551027:4920
9Nomme Utd U2120551036:4820
10Kalju U2120541130:5119
Promotion - Meistriliiga 2027 (Main)
Promotion - Meistriliiga (Relegation)
Relegation - Esiliiga (Relegation)
Relegation - Esiliiga B 2027 (Main)