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Tampa Bay vs FC Naples

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Club Friendly
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Tampa Bay play FC Naples in the Club Friendly. Tampa Bay are favorites here. Recently, Tampa Bay averaged 1.83 goals scored and 0.93 conceded. FC Naples averaged 1.15 goals scored and 1.35 conceded. In past meetings, Tampa Bay won 3, FC Naples won 0, and they drew 0. Their last match on Feb 18, 2026 ended 3:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 2.06 for Tampa Bay and 0.75 for FC Naples. This points to a Tampa Bay double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

58%
Tampa Bay
15%
Draws
27%
FC Naples
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Tampa Bay

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

84% / High Confidence
  • Tampa Bay picked up more points recently compared to FC Naples.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (2.06 vs 0.75 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 89%
Over 1.5 Goals 73%
Over 2.5 Goals 46%
Over 3.5 Goals 28%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 37%
Tampa Bay Clean Sheet 27%
FC Naples Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 66%
Second Half Goal 69%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tampa Bay FC Naples
Matches Played 30 34
Wins 19 13
Draws 7 3
Losses 4 18
Goals Scored 1.83 1.15
Goals Conceded 0.93 1.35
Expected Goals (xG) 2.00 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.50 2.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 18, 2026 Club Friendly
Tampa Bay vs FC Naples
3:0
Jul 4, 2025 USL Cup
FC Naples vs Tampa Bay
0:2
Apr 16, 2025 US Open Cup
FC Naples vs Tampa Bay
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Tampa Bay Compare

Top Goalscorer Schneider M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Mendez A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 1

FC Naples Compare

Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tampa Bay 58 / 100
FC Naples 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tampa Bay FC Naples

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Tampa Bay Win (1)
Secondary Pick Tampa Bay & Under 3.5
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +16%
2.00
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +15%
2.50
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Tampa Bay attacking → ← attacking FC Naples

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Tampa Bay scored in 90% of their last 30 games.

FC Naples let in goals in 68% of their last 34 matches.

Games between these two average 2.67 goals.

Tampa Bay went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

FC Naples lost 5 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

64 Points in last 5 42
2.00 Goals expected (xG) 1.00
0.50 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 2.13