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Tanzania vs Uganda

World World

Friendly International 2025
Our Tip

Match Events

14' Event
Nado I.
Assist: Salum F.
41'
Sub
Suleiman A. In: Simba J.
Out: Suleiman A.
47'
Sub
Youngman J. In: Ahimbisibwe Ivan
Out: Youngman J.

AI Match Summary

Tanzania in this Friendly International 2025 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Tanzania.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Tanzania
30%
Draws
31%
Uganda
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Tanzania

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

39% / Low Confidence
  • Uganda average 1.31 goals a game right now, well clear of Tanzania's 1.
  • Tanzania are the model's pick here, at 80%.
  • Regular Friendly International 2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 64.6%
Tanzania Clean Sheet 20%
Uganda Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tanzania Uganda
Matches Played 34 26
Wins 12 12
Draws 7 3
Losses 15 11
Goals Scored 1 1.31
Goals Conceded 0.94 1.31
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 5, 2026 Friendly International
Tanzania vs Uganda
0:0
Dec 27, 2025 Africa Cup of Nations
Uganda vs Tanzania
1:1
Jul 22, 2025 Friendly International
Tanzania vs Uganda
1:0
Mar 28, 2023 Africa Cup of Nations
Tanzania vs Uganda
0:1
Mar 24, 2023 Africa Cup of Nations
Uganda vs Tanzania
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Tanzania Compare

Top Goalscorer Nado I.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Uganda Compare

Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tanzania 76 / 100
Uganda 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tanzania Uganda

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Tanzania Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Uganda's defensive record shows goals conceded in 62% of 26 matches.

Tanzania has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Difficult form: Uganda registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Attacking prowess: Tanzania scored in 56% of their last 34 outings.

Scoring Trends

Tanzania VS Uganda
0.75 Goals Scored 0.75
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.75
63% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Tanzania

(Home)
29 Mar
Macau
0 : 6
Tanzania
26 Mar
Tanzania
0 : 1
Liechtenstein
04 Jan
Morocco
1 : 0
Tanzania
30 Dec
Tanzania
1 : 1
Tunisia
27 Dec
Uganda
1 : 1
Tanzania
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Uganda

(Away)
30 Dec
Uganda
1 : 3
Nigeria
27 Dec
Uganda
1 : 1
Tanzania
23 Dec
Tunisia
3 : 1
Uganda
18 Nov
Morocco
4 : 0
Uganda
14 Nov
Uganda
2 : 1
Chad
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