Sport Picks
Tapatio vs Leones Negros - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Mexico
Liga de Expansion MX Estadio Akron, Zapopan 
Match Events
6'
6'
Gil O.
Assist: Hernandez S. A.
40'
40'
Alvarado M.
46'
46'
Sub
Ledesma L. In: Garcia G.
Out: Ledesma L.
AI Match Summary
The Liga de Expansion MX game between Tapatio and Leones Negros finished 1-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Leones Negros.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
26%
15%
59%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Leones Negros
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
59%
/ Medium Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Leones Negros come out ahead of Tapatio on wins alone.
- Model gives Leones Negros a 59% chance of winning this.
- Regular Liga de Expansion MX form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78.2%
Tapatio Clean Sheet 10%
Leones Negros Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Tapatio | Leones Negros |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 30 |
| Wins | 10 | 11 |
| Draws | 5 | 8 |
| Losses | 15 | 11 |
| Goals Scored | 1.67 | 1.57 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.8 | 1.53 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.56 | 2.13 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 6, 2026 Liga de Expansion MX
Tapatio vs Leones Negros
1:3
Jan 30, 2026 Liga de Expansion MX
Tapatio vs Leones Negros
2:0
Aug 23, 2025 Liga de Expansion MX
Leones Negros vs Tapatio
1:1
Jun 8, 2025 Liga de Expansion MX
Leones Negros vs Tapatio
1:2
Jun 1, 2025 Liga de Expansion MX
Tapatio vs Leones Negros
1:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Tapatio Compare
Top Goalscorer Moragrega V.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.2
Avg xA / game 0.78
Leones Negros Compare
Top Goalscorer Gil O.
1 Goals Assists Leader Hernandez S. A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.94
Avg xA / game 1.18
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Tapatio 10 / 100
Leones Negros 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Tapatio Leones Negros
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Leones Negros Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Tapatio scored in 83% of their last 30 games.
Leones Negros let in goals in 80% of their last 30 matches.
Games between these two average 2.40 goals.
Recent resilience: Tapatio stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Tapatio VS Leones Negros
1.63 Goals Scored 2.13
2.13 Goals Conceded 1.5
88% Over 1.5 100%
75% Over 2.5 63%
63% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Tapatio
(Home) 01 Nov
Piratas
1 : 1 Tapatio
25 Oct
Tapatio
1 : 2 Club Atletico Morelia
18 Oct
Alacranes de Durango
5 : 0 Tapatio
13 Oct
Tapatio
4 : 1 Tepatitlan de Morelos
09 Oct
Tapatio
2 : 4 Atletico La Paz
Page 1 of 6
25 Oct
Tapatio
1 : 2 Club Atletico Morelia
13 Oct
Tapatio
4 : 1 Tepatitlan de Morelos
09 Oct
Tapatio
2 : 4 Atletico La Paz
20 Sept
Tapatio
4 : 0 Tlaxcala
06 Sept
Tapatio
1 : 3 Leones Negros
Page 1 of 3
Leones Negros
(Away) 08 Nov
Leones Negros
2 : 1 Alacranes de Durango
06 Nov
Alacranes de Durango
1 : 0 Leones Negros
01 Nov
Leones Negros
3 : 1 Tepatitlan de Morelos
25 Oct
Zacatecas Mineros
0 : 2 Leones Negros
18 Oct
Leones Negros
1 : 2 Alebrijes de Oaxaca
Page 1 of 6
06 Nov
Alacranes de Durango
1 : 0 Leones Negros
25 Oct
Zacatecas Mineros
0 : 2 Leones Negros
10 Oct
Venados FC
1 : 1 Leones Negros
26 Sept
Cruz Azul Hidalgo
1 : 2 Leones Negros
20 Sept
Club Atletico Morelia
2 : 0 Leones Negros
Page 1 of 4
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atletico La Paz | 15 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 36:18 | 30 |
| 2 | Leones Negros | 15 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 34:20 | 30 |
| 3 | Club Atletico Morelia | 15 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 26:19 | 26 |
| 4 | Piratas | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 27:15 | 25 |
| 5 | Cancun | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 28:18 | 25 |
| 6 | Venados FC | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 31:25 | 25 |
| 7 | Alacranes de Durango | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 21:15 | 24 |
| 8 | Tlaxcala | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 29:27 | 22 |
| 9 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | 15 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 15:25 | 22 |
| 10 | Zacatecas Mineros | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 26:26 | 18 |
| 11 | Tapatio | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 25:28 | 18 |
| 12 | Correcaminos | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 21:24 | 17 |
| 13 | Dorados de Sinaloa | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 23:32 | 16 |
| 14 | Jaiba Brava | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 15:25 | 15 |
| 15 | Cruz Azul Hidalgo | 15 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 17:24 | 14 |
| 16 | Tepatitlan de Morelos | 15 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 11:44 | 7 |
Promotion - Liga de Expansion MX (Apertura - Play Offs)
