Sport Picks
Tapatio vs Leones Negros
Mexico
Liga de Expansion MX Estadio Akron, Zapopan 
Match Events
6'
6'
Gil O.
Assist: Hernandez S. A.
40'
40'
Alvarado M.
46'
46'
Sub
Ledesma L. In: Garcia G.
Out: Ledesma L.
AI Match Summary
The Liga de Expansion MX game between Tapatio and Leones Negros finished 1-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Leones Negros.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
27%
30%
43%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Leones Negros
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
43%
/ Low Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Tapatio come out ahead of Leones Negros on wins alone.
- Model gives Leones Negros a 43% chance of winning this.
- Regular Liga de Expansion MX form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78.2%
Tapatio Clean Sheet 10%
Leones Negros Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Tapatio | Leones Negros |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 30 |
| Wins | 11 | 10 |
| Draws | 5 | 7 |
| Losses | 14 | 13 |
| Goals Scored | 1.8 | 1.37 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.77 | 1.63 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.38 | 2.00 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 6, 2026 Liga de Expansion MX
Tapatio vs Leones Negros
1:3
Jan 30, 2026 Liga de Expansion MX
Tapatio vs Leones Negros
2:0
Aug 23, 2025 Liga de Expansion MX
Leones Negros vs Tapatio
1:1
Jun 8, 2025 Liga de Expansion MX
Leones Negros vs Tapatio
1:2
Jun 1, 2025 Liga de Expansion MX
Tapatio vs Leones Negros
1:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Tapatio Compare
Top Goalscorer Moragrega V.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69
Leones Negros Compare
Top Goalscorer Gil O.
1 Goals Assists Leader Hernandez S. A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.82
Avg xA / game 1.11
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Tapatio 26 / 100
Leones Negros 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Tapatio Leones Negros
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Leones Negros Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Tapatio scored in 87% of their last 30 games.
Leones Negros let in goals in 73% of their last 30 matches.
Games between these two average 2.40 goals.
Recent resilience: Tapatio stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Tapatio VS Leones Negros
1.75 Goals Scored 2.13
1.88 Goals Conceded 1
75% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 63%
63% Over 3.5 50%
Recent Form & Match History
Tapatio
(Home) 13 Sept
Dorados de Sinaloa
3 : 1 Tapatio
06 Sept
Tapatio
1 : 3 Leones Negros
28 Aug
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
1 : 1 Tapatio
24 Aug
Tapatio
4 : 2 Zacatecas Mineros
15 Aug
Correcaminos
2 : 3 Tapatio
Page 1 of 6
06 Sept
Tapatio
1 : 3 Leones Negros
24 Aug
Tapatio
4 : 2 Zacatecas Mineros
01 Aug
Tapatio
1 : 0 Jaiba Brava
26 Jul
Tapatio
0 : 0 Cruz Azul Hidalgo
24 Apr
Tapatio
1 : 1 Cancun
Page 1 of 3
Leones Negros
(Away) 13 Sept
Leones Negros
2 : 2 Atletico La Paz
06 Sept
Tapatio
1 : 3 Leones Negros
30 Aug
Leones Negros
1 : 1 Piratas
23 Aug
Alacranes de Durango
1 : 2 Leones Negros
16 Aug
Leones Negros
4 : 0 Jaiba Brava
Page 1 of 6
06 Sept
Tapatio
1 : 3 Leones Negros
23 Aug
Alacranes de Durango
1 : 2 Leones Negros
02 Aug
Cancun
0 : 2 Leones Negros
25 Jul
Tlaxcala
2 : 4 Leones Negros
12 Apr
Venados FC
2 : 1 Leones Negros
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club Atletico Morelia | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 19:9 | 21 |
| 2 | Atletico La Paz | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 20:10 | 17 |
| 3 | Leones Negros | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 19:12 | 17 |
| 4 | Piratas | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 12:7 | 15 |
| 5 | Cancun | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 17:11 | 14 |
| 6 | Zacatecas Mineros | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 18:15 | 14 |
| 7 | Dorados de Sinaloa | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 17:13 | 13 |
| 8 | Venados FC | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 22:19 | 13 |
| 9 | Correcaminos | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 18:18 | 12 |
| 10 | Tapatio | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 13:14 | 11 |
| 11 | Alacranes de Durango | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 6:9 | 11 |
| 12 | Jaiba Brava | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11:15 | 11 |
| 13 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 7:15 | 10 |
| 14 | Tlaxcala | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 14:17 | 8 |
| 15 | Cruz Azul Hidalgo | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 10:16 | 7 |
| 16 | Tepatitlan de Morelos | 9 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 5:28 | 3 |
Promotion - Liga de Expansion MX (Apertura - Play Offs)
