Sport Picks
Match Events
15'
15'
Moragrega V.
Assist: Zamora S.
24'
24'
Espinoza G.
25'
25'
Moragrega V.
(Penalty)
AI Match Summary
Tapatio in this Liga de Expansion MX 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 3-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Tapatio.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
40%
20%
40%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
40%
/ Low Confidence
- Tlaxcala haven't matched Tapatio's recent run of results.
- 40% — that's where the model lands on Tapatio taking it.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- These two have met 5 times recently and Tapatio have taken 4 of them.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 69%
Over 4.5 Goals 31%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77%
Tapatio Clean Sheet 13%
Tlaxcala Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Tapatio | Tlaxcala |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 31 | 29 |
| Wins | 12 | 7 |
| Draws | 5 | 9 |
| Losses | 14 | 13 |
| Goals Scored | 1.87 | 1.21 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.71 | 1.83 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 2.06 | 1.69 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 20, 2026 Liga de Expansion MX
Tapatio vs Tlaxcala
4:0
Apr 7, 2026 Liga de Expansion MX
Tapatio vs Tlaxcala
3:0
Sep 13, 2025 Liga de Expansion MX
Tlaxcala vs Tapatio
1:0
Mar 9, 2025 Liga de Expansion MX
Tapatio vs Tlaxcala
1:0
Sep 22, 2024 Liga de Expansion MX
Tlaxcala vs Tapatio
2:3
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Tapatio Compare
Top Goalscorer Moragrega V.
1 Goals Assists Leader Ledesma L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.58
Avg xA / game 1.03
Tlaxcala Compare
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 0.94
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Tapatio 57 / 100
Tlaxcala 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Tapatio Tlaxcala
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Tapatio Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Tapatio scored in 87% of their last 31 games.
Tlaxcala let in goals in 79% of their last 29 matches.
Games between these two average 2.80 goals.
Tapatio has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Tapatio VS Tlaxcala
1.75 Goals Scored 1.5
1.88 Goals Conceded 2.38
75% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 75%
63% Over 3.5 75%
Recent Form & Match History
Tapatio
(Home) 20 Sept
Tapatio
4 : 0 Tlaxcala
13 Sept
Dorados de Sinaloa
3 : 1 Tapatio
06 Sept
Tapatio
1 : 3 Leones Negros
28 Aug
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
1 : 1 Tapatio
24 Aug
Tapatio
4 : 2 Zacatecas Mineros
Page 1 of 7
20 Sept
Tapatio
4 : 0 Tlaxcala
06 Sept
Tapatio
1 : 3 Leones Negros
24 Aug
Tapatio
4 : 2 Zacatecas Mineros
01 Aug
Tapatio
1 : 0 Jaiba Brava
26 Jul
Tapatio
0 : 0 Cruz Azul Hidalgo
Page 1 of 4
Tlaxcala
(Away) 20 Sept
Tapatio
4 : 0 Tlaxcala
12 Sept
Tlaxcala
3 : 1 Jaiba Brava
05 Sept
Alacranes de Durango
1 : 1 Tlaxcala
29 Aug
Tlaxcala
3 : 1 Venados FC
21 Aug
Tepatitlan de Morelos
3 : 2 Tlaxcala
Page 1 of 6
20 Sept
Tapatio
4 : 0 Tlaxcala
05 Sept
Alacranes de Durango
1 : 1 Tlaxcala
21 Aug
Tepatitlan de Morelos
3 : 2 Tlaxcala
16 Aug
Dorados de Sinaloa
2 : 2 Tlaxcala
01 Aug
Zacatecas Mineros
3 : 1 Tlaxcala
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tepatitlan de Morelos | 14 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 21:10 | 26 |
| 2 | Cancun | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 24:17 | 25 |
| 3 | Club Atletico Morelia | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 18:12 | 23 |
| 4 | Atletico La Paz | 14 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 22:12 | 22 |
| 5 | Jaiba Brava | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 15:15 | 21 |
| 6 | Zacatecas Mineros | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 19:20 | 21 |
| 7 | Tapatio | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 28:24 | 20 |
| 8 | Atlante | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 21:17 | 20 |
| 9 | Irapuato | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 27:24 | 20 |
| 10 | Tlaxcala | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 16:17 | 20 |
| 11 | Venados FC | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 25:25 | 16 |
| 12 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 20:29 | 16 |
| 13 | Dorados de Sinaloa | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 17:28 | 13 |
| 14 | Correcaminos | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 14:27 | 12 |
| 15 | Leones Negros | 14 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 15:25 | 11 |
Promotion - Liga de Expansion MX 2025/2026 (Clausura - Play Offs)
