Sport Picks
Tepatitlan de Morelos vs Zacatecas Mineros
Mexico
Liga de Expansion MX 2025/2026 Estadio Gregorio "Tepa" Gómez, Tepatitlán 
Match Events
6'
6'
Samano L.
Assist: Guzman W.
6'
6'
Mendoza A.
21'
21'
Islas O.
Assist: Mendoza B.
AI Match Summary
The Liga de Expansion MX 2025/2026 game between Tepatitlan de Morelos and Zacatecas Mineros finished 4-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Tepatitlan de Morelos.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
90%
6%
4%
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Tepatitlan de Morelos
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
95%
/ Very High Confidence
- Tepatitlan de Morelos carry the better recent record into this one.
- Tepatitlan de Morelos are the model's pick here, at 90%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Tepatitlan de Morelos Clean Sheet 68%
Zacatecas Mineros Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Tepatitlan de Morelos | Zacatecas Mineros |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 29 |
| Wins | 11 | 8 |
| Draws | 9 | 9 |
| Losses | 9 | 12 |
| Goals Scored | 1.13 | 1.63 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.75 | 1.88 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.13 | 1.63 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 0.75 | 1.88 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
May 4, 2026 Liga de Expansion MX
Tepatitlan de Morelos vs Zacatecas Mineros
1:1
May 1, 2026 Liga de Expansion MX
Zacatecas Mineros vs Tepatitlan de Morelos
1:1
Mar 8, 2026 Liga de Expansion MX
Tepatitlan de Morelos vs Zacatecas Mineros
4:0
Sep 27, 2025 Liga de Expansion MX
Zacatecas Mineros vs Tepatitlan de Morelos
3:3
Apr 20, 2025 Liga de Expansion MX
Zacatecas Mineros vs Tepatitlan de Morelos
1:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Tepatitlan de Morelos Compare
Top Goalscorer Samano L.
1 Goals Assists Leader Islas O.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56
Zacatecas Mineros Compare
Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Tepatitlan de Morelos 95 / 100
Zacatecas Mineros 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Tepatitlan de Morelos Zacatecas Mineros
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick TEP Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Games between these two average 3.40 goals.
Tepatitlan de Morelos found the back of the net in 69% of recent matches (29 games).
Zacatecas Mineros let in goals in 79% of their last 29 matches.
Tepatitlan de Morelos went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Tepatitlan de Morelos VS Zacatecas Mineros
1.13 Goals Scored 1.63
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.88
75% Over 1.5 88%
13% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Tepatitlan de Morelos
(Home) 25 Jul
Tepatitlan de Morelos
0 : 1 Alacranes de Durango
31 May
Jaiba Brava
4 : 3 Tepatitlan de Morelos
24 May
Tepatitlan de Morelos
3 : 1 Jaiba Brava
17 May
Tepatitlan de Morelos
1 : 0 Jaiba Brava
10 May
Jaiba Brava
0 : 0 Tepatitlan de Morelos
Page 1 of 6
25 Jul
Tepatitlan de Morelos
0 : 1 Alacranes de Durango
24 May
Tepatitlan de Morelos
3 : 1 Jaiba Brava
17 May
Tepatitlan de Morelos
1 : 0 Jaiba Brava
04 May
Tepatitlan de Morelos
1 : 1 Zacatecas Mineros
26 Apr
Tepatitlan de Morelos
2 : 0 Atlante
Page 1 of 3
Zacatecas Mineros
(Away) 25 Jul
Zacatecas Mineros
3 : 3 Correcaminos
10 Jul
Atletico San Luis
4 : 0 Zacatecas Mineros
04 Jul
Zacatecas Mineros
1 : 3 Juarez
27 Jun
Club Leon
7 : 4 Zacatecas Mineros
04 May
Tepatitlan de Morelos
1 : 1 Zacatecas Mineros
Page 1 of 6
10 Jul
Atletico San Luis
4 : 0 Zacatecas Mineros
27 Jun
Club Leon
7 : 4 Zacatecas Mineros
04 May
Tepatitlan de Morelos
1 : 1 Zacatecas Mineros
26 Apr
Club Atletico Morelia
2 : 0 Zacatecas Mineros
19 Apr
Irapuato
0 : 0 Zacatecas Mineros
Page 1 of 4
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tepatitlan de Morelos | 14 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 21:10 | 26 |
| 2 | Cancun | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 24:17 | 25 |
| 3 | Club Atletico Morelia | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 18:12 | 23 |
| 4 | Atletico La Paz | 14 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 22:12 | 22 |
| 5 | Jaiba Brava | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 15:15 | 21 |
| 6 | Zacatecas Mineros | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 19:20 | 21 |
| 7 | Tapatio | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 28:24 | 20 |
| 8 | Atlante | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 21:17 | 20 |
| 9 | Irapuato | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 27:24 | 20 |
| 10 | Tlaxcala | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 16:17 | 20 |
| 11 | Venados FC | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 25:25 | 16 |
| 12 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 20:29 | 16 |
| 13 | Dorados de Sinaloa | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 17:28 | 13 |
| 14 | Correcaminos | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 14:27 | 12 |
| 15 | Leones Negros | 14 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 15:25 | 11 |
Promotion - Liga de Expansion MX 2025/2026 (Clausura - Play Offs)