Sport Picks

Italy

Serie D - Group E

Orvietana

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Terranuova Traiana play Orvietana in the Serie D - Group E. It looks like a close match. Recently, Terranuova Traiana averaged 0.8 goals scored and 0.9 conceded. Orvietana averaged 0.93 goals scored and 0.97 conceded. In past meetings, Terranuova Traiana won 0, Orvietana won 2, and they drew 3. Their last match on May 3, 2026 ended 0:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.75 for Terranuova Traiana and 0.63 for Orvietana. This points to a Terranuova Traiana double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%

Terranuova Traiana

35%

Draws

29%

Orvietana

Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Terranuova Traiana

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

72% / Medium Confidence

Terranuova Traiana picked up more points recently compared to Orvietana.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.75 vs 0.63 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 52%

Over 2.5 Goals 25%

Over 3.5 Goals 15%

Over 4.5 Goals 8%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32%

Terranuova Traiana Clean Sheet 29%

Orvietana Clean Sheet 19%

First Half Goal 47%

Second Half Goal 49%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Terranuova Traiana	Orvietana
Matches Played	30	30
Wins	12	8
Draws	9	11
Losses	9	11
Goals Scored	0.8	0.93
Goals Conceded	0.9	0.97
Expected Goals (xG)	0.75	0.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	0.75	0.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 3, 2026 Serie D - Group E

Terranuova Traiana vs Orvietana

Possession: 42% - 41% Cards: 4 - 0

0:0

Dec 21, 2025 Serie D - Group E

Orvietana vs Terranuova Traiana

Possession: 40% - 48% Cards: 0 - 3

2:0

Mar 30, 2025 Serie D - Group E

Orvietana vs Terranuova Traiana

Possession: 48% - 45% Cards: 1 - 2

1:1

Nov 17, 2024 Serie D - Group E

Terranuova Traiana vs Orvietana

Possession: 55% - 55% Cards: 1 - 4

2:2

Mar 12, 2023 Serie D - Group E

Terranuova Traiana vs Orvietana

Possession: 57% - 42% Cards: 4 - 2

0:1

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Terranuova Traiana 38 / 100

Orvietana 30 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Terranuova Traiana Orvietana

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Terranuova Traiana or Draw (1X)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +28.5%

3.57

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +31.5%

5.26

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Terranuova Traiana attacking → ← attacking Orvietana

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Terranuova Traiana scored in 60% of their last 30 games.

Orvietana let in goals in 57% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 1.80 goals.

Terranuova Traiana went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Orvietana lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

45 Points in last 5 35

0.75 Goals expected (xG) 0.50

0.75 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.75

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Grosseto	34	22	6	6	58:25	72
2	Tau	34	18	9	7	53:33	63
3	Prato	34	20	5	9	49:29	63
4	Siena	34	17	9	8	57:35	60
5	Seravezza Pozzi	34	15	12	7	42:29	57
6	Terranuova Traiana	34	14	9	11	28:30	51
7	Foligno	34	14	9	11	45:37	51
8	Scandicci	34	11	15	8	39:32	48
9	Montevarchi	34	10	16	8	28:32	46
10	Sporting Trestina	34	10	12	12	40:42	42
11	San Donato Tavarnelle	34	9	13	12	30:35	40
12	Ghiviborgo	34	10	10	14	42:44	40
13	Orvietana	34	9	11	14	33:37	38
14	Follonica Gavorrano	34	9	10	15	36:49	37
15	Camaiore Calcio	34	9	8	17	41:54	35
16	Poggibonsi	34	7	10	17	29:46	31
17	Cannara	34	6	8	20	24:59	26
18	Vivi Altotevere Sansepolcro	34	2	16	16	20:46	22