Sport Picks

Iceland

Division 2

KFG Gardabaer

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Throttur Vogar play KFG Gardabaer in the Division 2. It looks like a close match. Recently, Throttur Vogar averaged 1.31 goals scored and 1.66 conceded. KFG Gardabaer averaged 1.69 goals scored and 2.72 conceded. In past meetings, Throttur Vogar won 2, KFG Gardabaer won 2, and they drew 1. Their last match on May 9, 2026 ended 3:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.88 for Throttur Vogar and 1.81 for KFG Gardabaer. This points to a Throttur Vogar double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%

Throttur Vogar

16%

Draws

37%

KFG Gardabaer

Draw rate projection: 16% Favored: Throttur Vogar

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

73% / Medium Confidence

Throttur Vogar picked up more points recently compared to KFG Gardabaer.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.88 vs 1.81 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 70%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 87%

Over 2.5 Goals 70%

Over 3.5 Goals 42%

Over 4.5 Goals 21%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70%

Throttur Vogar Clean Sheet 11%

KFG Gardabaer Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 78%

Second Half Goal 83%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Throttur Vogar	KFG Gardabaer
Matches Played	29	29
Wins	11	9
Draws	4	4
Losses	14	16
Goals Scored	1.31	1.69
Goals Conceded	1.66	2.72
Expected Goals (xG)	0.88	1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	2.00	2.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 9, 2026 Division 2

KFG Gardabaer vs Throttur Vogar

Possession: 59% - 48% Cards: 3 - 3

3:1

Jul 30, 2025 Division 2

KFG Gardabaer vs Throttur Vogar

Possession: 41% - 51% Cards: 2 - 0

4:3

May 23, 2025 Division 2

Throttur Vogar vs KFG Gardabaer

Possession: 58% - 48% Cards: 2 - 4

2:1

Jul 31, 2024 Division 2

KFG Gardabaer vs Throttur Vogar

Possession: 57% - 41% Cards: 2 - 0

3:3

May 23, 2024 Division 2

Throttur Vogar vs KFG Gardabaer

Possession: 46% - 42% Cards: 1 - 1

1:0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Throttur Vogar 45 / 100

KFG Gardabaer 35 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Throttur Vogar KFG Gardabaer

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Throttur Vogar or Draw (1X)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +20.3%

2.56

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +9.2%

1.56

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Throttur Vogar attacking → ← attacking KFG Gardabaer

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Throttur Vogar scored in 72% of their last 29 games.

KFG Gardabaer let in goals in 93% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 4.20 goals.

Throttur Vogar went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

KFG Gardabaer lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

37 Points in last 5 31

0.88 Goals expected (xG) 1.63

2.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 2.88

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Haukar	11	7	2	2	28:14	23
2	Dalvik/Reynir	11	6	2	3	21:15	20
3	Selfoss	11	5	4	2	24:22	19
4	Kari	11	4	5	2	29:20	17
5	Kormakur/Hvot	10	4	3	3	25:13	15
6	Fjolnir	10	4	2	4	25:21	14
7	Olafsvik	10	4	2	4	16:20	14
8	Hviti	11	2	6	3	15:19	12
9	KFG Gardabaer	11	4	0	7	16:32	12
10	KFA	10	3	1	6	24:22	10
11	Throttur Vogar	10	3	1	6	12:19	10
12	Magni	10	2	2	6	12:30	8