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Thun vs Lugano

Switzerland Switzerland

Super League 2025/2026 Stockhorn Arena, Thun
Our Tip

Match Events

5'
Sub
Montolio G. In: Dahler L.
Out: Montolio G.
33'
Heule M.
36'
Papadopoulos A.

AI Match Summary

Lugano in this Super League 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Lugano.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Thun
30%
Draws
34%
Lugano
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Thun

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

66% / Medium Confidence
  • Thun have won more games recently than Lugano.
  • Model gives Thun a 36% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Super League 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78.6%
Thun Clean Sheet 10%
Lugano Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Thun Lugano
Matches Played 27 29
Wins 16 15
Draws 4 8
Losses 7 6
Goals Scored 2 2
Goals Conceded 2 0.75
Expected Goals (xG) 2.00 2.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.00 0.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 25, 2026 Super League
Thun vs Lugano
0:1
Apr 4, 2026 Super League
Lugano vs Thun
1:0
Nov 22, 2025 Super League
Thun vs Lugano
0:1
Jul 27, 2025 Super League
Lugano vs Thun
1:2
Jul 11, 2025 Club Friendly
Lugano vs Thun
2:4

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Thun 34 / 100
Lugano 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Thun Lugano

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Thun scored in 89% of their last 27 outings.

Defensive concern: Lugano conceded in 69% of 29 recent games.

H2H data points to 2.40 goals as a typical output.

Thun went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Thun VS Lugano
2 Goals Scored 2
2 Goals Conceded 0.75
88% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Thun

(Home)
25 Jul
Luzern
1 : 3
Thun
21 Jul
Thun
1 : 1
Din. Zagreb
11 Jul
Thun
1 : 2
Mannheim
11 Jul
Thun
1 : 1
Elversberg
04 Jul
Thun
6 : 2
Xamax
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Lugano

(Away)
26 Jul
Lugano
2 : 1
Vaduz
23 Jul
Lugano
1 : 0
Dukagjini
17 Jul
Lugano
1 : 2
Vaduz
10 Jul
Heidenheim
0 : 1
Lugano
07 Jul
Memmingen
0 : 4
Lugano
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Thun382431180:5275
2St. Gallen382010872:4770
3Lugano381910959:4267
4Sion381615763:4063
5Basel381681455:5856
6Young Boys3815101380:6955
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)