Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Toledo vs Araucaria

Brazil Brazil

Paranaense 2 Estádio Municipal 14 de Dezembro, Toledo
Toledo Logo

Toledo

1 - 0
FT
Araucaria Logo

Araucaria

Our Tip

Match Events

19' Event
Akunna N.
73'
Miranda J.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Toledo in this Paranaense 2 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Toledo.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

26%
Toledo
15%
Draws
59%
Araucaria
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Araucaria

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

59% / Medium Confidence
  • Araucaria haven't matched Toledo's recent run of results.
  • Araucaria are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.4%
Toledo Clean Sheet 13%
Araucaria Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Toledo Araucaria
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 11 10
Draws 8 8
Losses 12 12
Goals Scored 0.97 1.5
Goals Conceded 1.42 1.4
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 7, 2026 Paranaense 2
Toledo vs Araucaria
1:0
May 14, 2023 Paranaense 2
Toledo vs Araucaria
5:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Toledo Compare

Top Goalscorer Akunna N.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Araucaria Compare

Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 0.94

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Toledo 10 / 100
Araucaria 84 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Toledo Araucaria

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Araucaria Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Toledo scored in 65% of their last 31 games.

Defensive concern: Araucaria conceded in 77% of 30 recent games.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Solid form: Toledo remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Toledo VS Araucaria
0.5 Goals Scored 2
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.75
63% Over 1.5 63%
25% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Toledo

(Home)
10 May
Parana
6 : 1
Toledo
03 May
Toledo
0 : 2
Parana
25 Apr
Paranavai-PR
0 : 1
Toledo
19 Apr
Toledo
0 : 0
Rio Branco PR
10 Apr
Parana
2 : 0
Toledo
Page 1 of 7

Araucaria

(Away)
23 May
Parana
2 : 1
Araucaria
17 May
Araucaria
0 : 2
Parana
11 May
Araucaria
1 : 0
Rio Branco PR
03 May
Rio Branco PR
2 : 5
Araucaria
25 Apr
Batel
0 : 1
Araucaria
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Parana 9 7 2 0 14:3 23
2 Patriotas 9 6 1 2 16:9 19
3 Laranja Mecanica 9 4 2 3 7:9 14
4 Araucaria 9 3 3 3 13:14 12
5 Rio Branco PR 9 2 5 2 16:14 11
6 Paranavai-PR 9 3 1 5 10:11 10
7 Nacional PR 9 2 4 3 9:12 10
8 Toledo 9 2 4 3 6:10 10
9 Batel 9 2 3 4 10:10 9
10 Prudentopolis 9 1 1 7 4:13 4
Promotion - Paranaense 2 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Paranaense 3 2027 (Main)