Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Toledo vs Nacional PR

Brazil Brazil

Paranaense 2 2025 Estádio Municipal 14 de Dezembro, Toledo
Toledo Logo

Toledo

2 - 0
FT
Nacional PR Logo

Nacional PR

Our Tip

Match Events

58' Event
Kraemer V.
80'
Bruninho
90' Event
Breno
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Paranaense 2 2025 game between Toledo and Nacional PR finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Toledo.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Toledo
30%
Draws
39%
Nacional PR
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Nacional PR

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

39% / Low Confidence
  • Nacional PR haven't matched Toledo's recent run of results.
  • Nacional PR are the model's pick here, at 50%.
  • Regular Paranaense 2 2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.8%
Toledo Clean Sheet 22%
Nacional PR Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Toledo Nacional PR
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 10 9
Draws 8 11
Losses 12 10
Goals Scored 0.97 1.23
Goals Conceded 1.47 1.23
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 1, 2026 Paranaense 2
Nacional PR vs Toledo
1:1
May 4, 2025 Paranaense 2
Toledo vs Nacional PR
2:0
Nov 21, 2020 Serie D
Nacional PR vs Toledo
1:4
Sep 27, 2020 Serie D
Toledo vs Nacional PR
2:3
Mar 31, 2013 Paranaense
Nacional PR vs Toledo
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Toledo Compare

Top Goalscorer Kraemer V.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Breno
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Nacional PR Compare

Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Toledo 24 / 100
Nacional PR 59 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Toledo Nacional PR

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Nacional PR Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Toledo found the back of the net in 63% of recent matches (30 games).

Defensive concern: Nacional PR conceded in 67% of 30 recent games.

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

Toledo went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Toledo VS Nacional PR
0.63 Goals Scored 1
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.38
50% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Toledo

(Home)
10 May
Parana
6 : 1
Toledo
03 May
Toledo
0 : 2
Parana
25 Apr
Paranavai-PR
0 : 1
Toledo
19 Apr
Toledo
0 : 0
Rio Branco PR
10 Apr
Parana
2 : 0
Toledo
Page 1 of 6

Nacional PR

(Away)
10 May
Patriotas
1 : 0
Nacional PR
02 May
Nacional PR
0 : 0
Patriotas
25 Apr
Laranja Mecanica
0 : 1
Nacional PR
18 Apr
Nacional PR
0 : 0
Batel
12 Apr
Nacional PR
1 : 4
Paranavai-PR
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Galo Maringa 9 7 2 0 18:4 23
2 Paranavai-PR 9 5 2 2 16:6 17
3 Foz do Iguacu 9 5 2 2 17:9 17
4 Patriotas 9 4 1 4 9:15 13
5 Nacional PR 9 3 2 4 9:12 11
6 Batel 9 2 4 3 10:13 10
7 Laranja Mecanica 9 2 4 3 5:9 10
8 Toledo 9 2 3 4 6:13 9
9 AA Iguacu 9 1 3 5 10:14 6
10 Parana S.T.C. 9 1 3 5 7:12 6
Promotion - Paranaense 2 2025 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Paranaense 3 (Main)