Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Toledo vs Parana

Brazil Brazil

Paranaense 2 Estádio Municipal 14 de Dezembro, Toledo
Our Tip

Match Events

30' Event
Joao Felipe
60' Event
Gustavo Sagui

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 6-1. This leg finished 0-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
Toledo
30%
Draws
47%
Parana
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Parana

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Parana lately — more wins on the board than Toledo.
  • Win probability leans Parana's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Parana arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Parana, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Parana here — 5 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 89%
Over 1.5 Goals 79.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 25.6%
Toledo Clean Sheet 10%
Parana Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Toledo Parana
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 10 14
Draws 8 9
Losses 12 6
Goals Scored 0.97 1.24
Goals Conceded 1.47 0.76
Expected Goals (xG) 0.53 2.33
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 10, 2026 Paranaense 2
Parana vs Toledo
6:1
May 3, 2026 Paranaense 2
Toledo vs Parana
0:2
Apr 10, 2026 Paranaense 2
Parana vs Toledo
2:0
Apr 30, 2023 Paranaense 2
Parana vs Toledo
2:0
Mar 17, 2021 Paranaense
Toledo vs Parana
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Toledo Compare

Avg xG / game 0.41
Avg xA / game 0.27

Parana Compare

Top Goalscorer Joao Felipe
1 Goals
Assists Leader Gustavo Sagui
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.12
Avg xA / game 1.29

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Toledo 10 / 100
Parana 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Toledo Parana

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Parana Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Toledo scored in 63% of their last 30 games.

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

Parana let in goals in 55% of their last 29 matches.

Solid form: Toledo remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Toledo VS Parana
0.57 Goals Scored 2.38
2.29 Goals Conceded 0.5
71% Over 1.5 88%
43% Over 2.5 38%
29% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Toledo

(Home)
10 May
Parana
6 : 1
Toledo
03 May
Toledo
0 : 2
Parana
25 Apr
Paranavai-PR
0 : 1
Toledo
19 Apr
Toledo
0 : 0
Rio Branco PR
10 Apr
Parana
2 : 0
Toledo
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Parana

(Away)
21 Sept
Londrina B
2 : 2
Parana
13 Sept
Azuriz
0 : 0
Parana
05 Sept
Parana
2 : 1
FC Cascavel
29 Aug
Athletico-PR B
1 : 2
Parana
06 Jun
Parana
0 : 1
Paranavai-PR
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Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Parana 8
Toledo 1
Araucaria 6
Rio Branco PR 2
Patriotas 1
Nacional PR 0
Laranja Mecanica 1
Paranavai-PR 2
Semi-finals
Parana 4
Araucaria 1
Patriotas 2
Paranavai-PR 3
Final
Parana 1
Paranavai-PR 2