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Toledo W vs Brasil de Farroupilha W

Brazil Brazil

Copa do Brasil Women 2025
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Toledo W play Brasil de Farroupilha W in the Copa do Brasil Women 2025. It looks like a close match. Recently, Toledo W averaged 1.35 goals scored and 3.29 conceded. Brasil de Farroupilha W averaged 0.84 goals scored and 2.13 conceded. In past meetings, Toledo W won 1, Brasil de Farroupilha W won 2, and they drew 0. Their last match on May 28, 2025 ended 1:3. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.11 for Toledo W and 1.70 for Brasil de Farroupilha W. This points to a Brasil de Farroupilha W double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Toledo W
15%
Draws
45%
Brasil de Farroupilha W
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Brasil de Farroupilha W

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence
  • Toledo W picked up more points recently compared to Brasil de Farroupilha W.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.11 vs 1.70 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 67%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 78%
Over 2.5 Goals 67%
Over 3.5 Goals 40%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 37%
Toledo W Clean Sheet 13%
Brasil de Farroupilha W Clean Sheet 13%
First Half Goal 70%
Second Half Goal 74%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Toledo W Brasil de Farroupilha W
Matches Played 17 31
Wins 4 8
Draws 1 4
Losses 12 19
Goals Scored 1.35 0.84
Goals Conceded 3.29 2.13
Expected Goals (xG) 0.60 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.40 1.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 28, 2025 Copa do Brasil Women
Toledo W vs Brasil de Farroupilha W
1:3
May 11, 2025 Brasileiro A3 Women
Brasil de Farroupilha W vs Toledo W
2:0
Oct 31, 2020 Brasileiro A2 Women
Toledo W vs Brasil de Farroupilha W
4:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Toledo W Compare

Top Goalscorer Polidoro dos Santos G.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.46
Avg xA / game 0.3

Brasil de Farroupilha W Compare

Top Goalscorer De Castro I.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Soares Amaral L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Toledo W 39 / 100
Brasil de Farroupilha W 43 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Toledo W Brasil de Farroupilha W

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Brasil de Farroupilha W or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +25.2%
3.13
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +9.9%
1.64
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Toledo W attacking → ← attacking Brasil de Farroupilha W

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Toledo W scored in 71% of their last 17 games.

Brasil de Farroupilha W let in goals in 81% of their last 31 matches.

Games between these two average 3.33 goals.

Toledo W went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Brasil de Farroupilha W lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

13 Points in last 5 28
0.60 Goals expected (xG) 1.00
2.40 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.63