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Toluca W vs Club America W

Mexico Mexico

Liga MX Women Estadio Nemesio Díez
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Toluca W play Club America W in the Liga MX Women. It looks like a close match. Recently, Toluca W averaged 2.15 goals scored and 1.58 conceded. Club America W averaged 2.71 goals scored and 1.24 conceded. In past meetings, Toluca W won 1, Club America W won 3, and they drew 1. Their last match on May 10, 2026 ended 4:3. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.88 for Toluca W and 2.31 for Club America W. This points to a Club America W double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Toluca W
20%
Draws
44%
Club America W
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Club America W

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

72% / Medium Confidence
  • Toluca W picked up more points recently compared to Club America W.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.88 vs 2.31 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 64%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 89%
Over 2.5 Goals 64%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 19%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 57%
Toluca W Clean Sheet 10%
Club America W Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 80%
Second Half Goal 85%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Toluca W Club America W
Matches Played 33 42
Wins 18 28
Draws 7 8
Losses 8 6
Goals Scored 2.15 2.71
Goals Conceded 1.58 1.24
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.88 1.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 10, 2026 Liga MX Women
Club America W vs Toluca W
4:3
May 8, 2026 Liga MX Women
Toluca W vs Club America W
1:7
Mar 17, 2026 Liga MX Women
Club America W vs Toluca W
2:0
Sep 23, 2025 Liga MX Women
Toluca W vs Club America W
3:3
Apr 18, 2025 Liga MX Women
Toluca W vs Club America W
4:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Toluca W Compare

Top Goalscorer Erceg A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94

Club America W Compare

Top Goalscorer Geyse
2 Goals
Assists Leader Rodriguez K.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Toluca W 34 / 100
Club America W 42 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Toluca W Club America W

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Club America W or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +28.5%
3.57
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +10.1%
1.72
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Toluca W attacking → ← attacking Club America W

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Toluca W scored in 85% of their last 33 games.

Club America W let in goals in 64% of their last 42 matches.

Games between these two average 6.00 goals.

Toluca W went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Club America W lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

61 Points in last 5 92
1.88 Goals expected (xG) 1.75
2.88 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.88