Sport Picks
Tomaszow Mazowiecki vs Suwalki
Poland
III Liga - Group I 2025/2026 
Match Events
8'
8'
Michalowski F.
10'
10'
Michalowski F.
41'
41'
Gebala P.
AI Match Summary
The III Liga - Group I 2025/2026 game between Tomaszow Mazowiecki and Suwalki finished 1-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Suwalki.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
31%
30%
39%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Suwalki
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
30%
/ Low Confidence
- Suwalki carry the better recent record into this one.
- Tomaszow Mazowiecki are the model's pick here, at 42%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- History favors Suwalki here — 4 wins from the last 4 head-to-heads.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 79%
Tomaszow Mazowiecki Clean Sheet 12%
Suwalki Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Tomaszow Mazowiecki | Suwalki |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 28 |
| Wins | 12 | 14 |
| Draws | 6 | 6 |
| Losses | 11 | 8 |
| Goals Scored | 2.07 | 1.71 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.86 | 1.32 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.75 | 1.75 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
May 2, 2026 III Liga - Group I
Tomaszow Mazowiecki vs Suwalki
1:3
Oct 12, 2025 III Liga - Group I
Suwalki vs Tomaszow Mazowiecki
3:0
May 25, 2025 III Liga - Group I
Suwalki vs Tomaszow Mazowiecki
1:0
Nov 3, 2024 III Liga - Group I
Tomaszow Mazowiecki vs Suwalki
1:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Tomaszow Mazowiecki Compare
Top Goalscorer Gebala P.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88
Suwalki Compare
Top Goalscorer Michalowski F.
2 Goals Assists Leader Modzelewski P.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Tomaszow Mazowiecki 40 / 100
Suwalki 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Tomaszow Mazowiecki Suwalki
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Attacking prowess: Tomaszow Mazowiecki scored in 90% of their last 29 outings.
Suwalki's defensive record shows goals conceded in 71% of 28 matches.
These sides typically produce 2.75 goals when they meet.
Recent resilience: Tomaszow Mazowiecki stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Tomaszow Mazowiecki VS Suwalki
2.13 Goals Scored 1.25
2.25 Goals Conceded 1.38
100% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 38%
50% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Tomaszow Mazowiecki
(Home) 18 Sept
Tomaszow Mazowiecki
1 : 2 Swit Mazowiecki
11 Sept
Zabkovia Zabki
4 : 2 Tomaszow Mazowiecki
05 Sept
Tomaszow Mazowiecki
0 : 2 Troszyn
29 Aug
Jagiellonia II
1 : 1 Tomaszow Mazowiecki
23 Aug
Tomaszow Mazowiecki
4 : 3 LKS Lodz II
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18 Sept
Tomaszow Mazowiecki
1 : 2 Swit Mazowiecki
05 Sept
Tomaszow Mazowiecki
0 : 2 Troszyn
23 Aug
Tomaszow Mazowiecki
4 : 3 LKS Lodz II
14 Aug
Tomaszow Mazowiecki
5 : 2 LKS Lomza
24 Jul
Tomaszow Mazowiecki
3 : 1 Spartakus Daleszyce
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Suwalki
(Away) 12 Sept
Olimpia Zambrow
1 : 1 Suwalki
06 Sept
Suwalki
1 : 3 Lidzbark Warmimski
01 Sept
Suwalki
1 : 5 Termalica Bruk-Bet
29 Aug
Olimpia Elblag
1 : 3 Suwalki
23 Aug
Suwalki
0 : 0 Swit Mazowiecki
Page 1 of 6
12 Sept
Olimpia Zambrow
1 : 1 Suwalki
29 Aug
Olimpia Elblag
1 : 3 Suwalki
19 Aug
Zabkovia Zabki
1 : 1 Suwalki
07 Aug
Jagiellonia II
1 : 1 Suwalki
17 Jul
Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki
0 : 2 Suwalki
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League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Legia II | 34 | 27 | 3 | 4 | 82:29 | 84 |
| 2 | LKS Lomza | 34 | 22 | 5 | 7 | 77:31 | 71 |
| 3 | Warta Sieradz | 34 | 21 | 8 | 5 | 64:34 | 71 |
| 4 | Suwalki | 34 | 20 | 5 | 9 | 64:43 | 65 |
| 5 | Troszyn | 34 | 17 | 6 | 11 | 75:47 | 57 |
| 6 | Plock II | 34 | 16 | 8 | 10 | 56:51 | 56 |
| 7 | Widzew Lodz II | 34 | 17 | 3 | 14 | 70:64 | 54 |
| 8 | Jagiellonia II | 34 | 14 | 7 | 13 | 46:45 | 49 |
| 9 | Tomaszow Mazowiecki | 34 | 13 | 8 | 13 | 64:55 | 47 |
| 10 | Zabkovia Zabki | 34 | 13 | 5 | 16 | 72:64 | 44 |
| 11 | Swit Mazowiecki | 34 | 12 | 5 | 17 | 51:66 | 41 |
| 12 | MKS Mlawa | 34 | 11 | 7 | 16 | 55:59 | 40 |
| 13 | Olimpia Elblag | 34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | 45:61 | 38 |
| 14 | GKS Wikielec | 34 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 40:54 | 37 |
| 15 | Bron Radom | 34 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 40:57 | 36 |
| 16 | GKS Belchatow | 34 | 9 | 7 | 18 | 50:76 | 34 |
| 17 | Wasilkow | 34 | 7 | 4 | 23 | 40:79 | 25 |
| 18 | Znicz Biala Piska | 34 | 4 | 3 | 27 | 27:103 | 15 |
Promotion - Division 2 (Main)
Promotion - Division 2 2025/2026 (Relegation - Play Offs)
