Sport Picks
Tomaszow Mazowiecki vs Ursus Warszawa
Poland
III Liga - Group I 2022/2023 
Match Events
16'
16'
Sutor J.
34'
34'
Szymczak K.
(Penalty)
64'
64'
Wisniewski B.
AI Match Summary
The III Liga - Group I 2022/2023 game between Tomaszow Mazowiecki and Ursus Warszawa finished 2-2.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
31%
39%
30%
Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
65%
/ Medium Confidence
- Ursus Warszawa haven't matched Tomaszow Mazowiecki's recent run of results.
- Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78.6%
Tomaszow Mazowiecki Clean Sheet 20%
Ursus Warszawa Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Tomaszow Mazowiecki | Ursus Warszawa |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 39 | 30 |
| Wins | 15 | 5 |
| Draws | 10 | 6 |
| Losses | 14 | 19 |
| Goals Scored | 2.63 | 0 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.38 | 0 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Jun 10, 2023 III Liga - Group I
Tomaszow Mazowiecki vs Ursus Warszawa
2:2
Nov 12, 2022 III Liga - Group I
Ursus Warszawa vs Tomaszow Mazowiecki
1:7
May 15, 2022 III Liga - Group I
Tomaszow Mazowiecki vs Ursus Warszawa
0:3
Oct 13, 2021 III Liga - Group I
Ursus Warszawa vs Tomaszow Mazowiecki
0:5
Apr 10, 2021 III Liga - Group I
Tomaszow Mazowiecki vs Ursus Warszawa
1:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Tomaszow Mazowiecki Compare
Top Goalscorer Sutor J.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 2.02
Avg xA / game 1.31
Ursus Warszawa Compare
Top Goalscorer Wisniewski B.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0
Avg xA / game 0
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Tomaszow Mazowiecki 32 / 100
Ursus Warszawa 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Tomaszow Mazowiecki Ursus Warszawa
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick URS Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Tomaszow Mazowiecki found the back of the net in 87% of recent matches (39 games).
Ursus Warszawa's defensive record shows goals conceded in 87% of 30 matches.
H2H data points to 4.20 goals as a typical output.
Tomaszow Mazowiecki went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Tomaszow Mazowiecki VS -
2.63 Goals Scored 0
1.38 Goals Conceded 0
88% Over 1.5 0%
63% Over 2.5 0%
63% Over 3.5 0%
Recent Form & Match History
Tomaszow Mazowiecki
(Home) 11 Jul
Tomaszow Mazowiecki
1 : 3 Star Starachowice
04 Jul
Tomaszow Mazowiecki
1 : 4 Wda Swiecie
30 May
Tomaszow Mazowiecki
0 : 0 Olimpia Elblag
24 May
MKS Mlawa
3 : 1 Tomaszow Mazowiecki
17 May
Tomaszow Mazowiecki
2 : 0 Swit Mazowiecki
Page 1 of 8
11 Jul
Tomaszow Mazowiecki
1 : 3 Star Starachowice
04 Jul
Tomaszow Mazowiecki
1 : 4 Wda Swiecie
30 May
Tomaszow Mazowiecki
0 : 0 Olimpia Elblag
17 May
Tomaszow Mazowiecki
2 : 0 Swit Mazowiecki
02 May
Tomaszow Mazowiecki
1 : 3 Suwalki
Page 1 of 5
Ursus Warszawa
(Away) 15 Feb
Biala Podlaska
1 : 1 Ursus Warszawa
08 Feb
Ursus Warszawa
4 : 1 Mszczonowianka Mszczonow
01 Feb
Ursus Warszawa
2 : 6 Victoria Sulejowek
20 Jul
LKS Lomza
0 : 0 Ursus Warszawa
17 Feb
Warta Sieradz
2 : 0 Ursus Warszawa
Page 1 of 6
15 Feb
Biala Podlaska
1 : 1 Ursus Warszawa
20 Jul
LKS Lomza
0 : 0 Ursus Warszawa
17 Feb
Warta Sieradz
2 : 0 Ursus Warszawa
10 Jun
Tomaszow Mazowiecki
2 : 2 Ursus Warszawa
28 May
Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki
0 : 0 Ursus Warszawa
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League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LKS Lodz II | 34 | 20 | 8 | 6 | 76:41 | 68 |
| 2 | Legionowo | 34 | 18 | 10 | 6 | 71:43 | 64 |
| 3 | Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki | 34 | 18 | 10 | 6 | 62:39 | 64 |
| 4 | Swit Mazowiecki | 34 | 18 | 7 | 9 | 66:45 | 61 |
| 5 | Legia II | 34 | 15 | 10 | 9 | 66:48 | 55 |
| 6 | Tomaszow Mazowiecki | 34 | 15 | 10 | 9 | 51:43 | 55 |
| 7 | Unia Skierniewice | 34 | 15 | 8 | 11 | 41:38 | 53 |
| 8 | MKS Mlawa | 34 | 15 | 7 | 12 | 83:71 | 52 |
| 9 | Jagiellonia II | 34 | 13 | 10 | 11 | 65:54 | 49 |
| 10 | Pilica Bialobrzegi | 34 | 12 | 9 | 13 | 53:55 | 45 |
| 11 | Pelikan | 34 | 12 | 9 | 13 | 56:52 | 45 |
| 12 | Sokol Ostroda | 34 | 10 | 6 | 18 | 49:71 | 36 |
| 13 | Olimpia Zambrow | 34 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 40:63 | 36 |
| 14 | Bron Radom | 34 | 9 | 8 | 17 | 60:76 | 35 |
| 15 | Warta Sieradz | 34 | 8 | 10 | 16 | 39:53 | 34 |
| 16 | Concordia Elblag | 34 | 8 | 9 | 17 | 38:61 | 33 |
| 17 | Blonianka Blonie | 34 | 8 | 6 | 20 | 35:68 | 30 |
| 18 | Ursus Warszawa | 34 | 5 | 10 | 19 | 42:72 | 25 |
Promotion - Division 2 2023/2024 (Main)