Sport Picks
AI Match Summary
Ton Pentre in this FA Cup 2018/2019 tie, finishing 3-1. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
43%
15%
42%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Ton Pentre
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
42%
/ Low Confidence
- Ton Pentre have won more games recently than Pencoed.
- Pencoed are the model's pick here, at 70%.
- Ton Pentre have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
- Historical meetings favor Ton Pentre, who have won 1 of the last 1 encounters.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 36.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 16%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.8%
Ton Pentre Clean Sheet 15%
Pencoed Clean Sheet 11%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Ton Pentre | Pencoed |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 20 | 8 |
| Wins | 8 | 3 |
| Draws | 2 | 0 |
| Losses | 10 | 5 |
| Goals Scored | 1.7 | 1.88 |
| Goals Conceded | 2.35 | 1.88 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.27 | 1.51 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Oct 20, 2018 FAW Welsh Cup
Ton Pentre vs Pencoed
3:1
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Ton Pentre 15 / 100
Pencoed 65 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Ton Pentre Pencoed
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Pencoed Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Ton Pentre found the back of the net in 80% of recent matches (20 games).
H2H data points to 4.00 goals as a typical output.
Pencoed let in goals in 75% of their last 8 matches.
Away concern: Pencoed has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
Ton Pentre VS Pencoed
0.75 Goals Scored 2.4
0.63 Goals Conceded 1.8
38% Over 1.5 80%
38% Over 2.5 80%
13% Over 3.5 60%
Recent Form & Match History
Ton Pentre
(Home) 15 Jul
Ton Pentre
1 : 2 Goytre Utd
17 Sept
Trethomas Bluebirds
6 : 0 Ton Pentre
06 Mar
Croesyceiliog FC
1 : 2 Ton Pentre
22 Feb
Garden Village
0 : 3 Ton Pentre
08 Feb
Trefelin
4 : 1 Ton Pentre
Page 1 of 4
15 Jul
Ton Pentre
1 : 2 Goytre Utd
01 Feb
Ton Pentre
5 : 3 Llwydcoed
25 Jan
Ton Pentre
1 : 3 Penydarren
11 Jan
Ton Pentre
3 : 0 Monmouth
28 Dec
Ton Pentre
2 : 2 Port Talbot
Page 1 of 2
Pencoed
(Away) 21 Sept
Goytre AFC
3 : 1 Pencoed
08 Oct
Pencoed
0 : 1 Aberystwyth
17 Sept
Pencoed
6 : 2 Brecon Corinthians
04 Sept
Pencoed
0 : 3 Llantwit Major
14 Aug
Pencoed
5 : 0 Treharris Athletic
Page 1 of 2
21 Sept
Goytre AFC
3 : 1 Pencoed
20 Oct
Ton Pentre
3 : 1 Pencoed
07 Oct
Pontyclun FC
0 : 1 Pencoed
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/64-finals
Cardiff Metropolitan University -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Cwmbran Town 3
Afan Lido 2
Pencoed 1
Ton Pentre 3
Cwmamman United 4
Dinas Powys 0
Garden Village 1
Blaenrhondda 2
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Aberystwyth -
Haverfordwest 2
STM Sports 1
Trefelin 1
Pure Swansea 2
Goytre AFC 2
Radnor Valley 1
Llanidloes Town 1
Pontypridd United 2
Flint Town 2
Llanrhaeadr 1
Brickfield Rangers 3
Gresford 4
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Bala -
Caernarfon -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Berriew FC 3
Penrhyncoch 2
New Brighton Villa 1
Prestatyn 5
Holyhead 4
Corwen 2
Coedpoeth 2
Ruthin Town 3
Cefn Albion 7
Dolgellau Athletic 1
Mold Alexandra 2
Bangor City 4
Carmarthen Town -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Pontyclun FC 3
Llantwit Major 1
Penlan Club 0
Goytre Utd 1
Guilsfield 2
Rhostyllen 0
Llandudno Amateurs 2
Nantlle Vale FC 4
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Connahs Q. -
TNS -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Sully Sports 3
Brecon Corinthians 1
Ammanford Town 0
Cwmbran Celtic 3
Porthmadog 3
Pwllheli 0
Hawarden Rangers 2
Llanfair United 3
Llay Welfare 2
Rhydymwyn 0
Penycae FC 0
Airbus UK Broughton FC 4
Llangefni 2
Borth United 0
Llandudno Albion 3
St. Asaph 4
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Llanelli -
Briton Ferry 1
Caerau Ely 0
Cornelly 2
Treharris Athletic 3
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Llandudno FC -
Cambrian United 5
Port Talbot 0
West End 0
Caldicot 6
Buckley 3
Brymbo 1
Holyhead Town 3
Denbigh 9
Newtown -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Caersws FC 3
Holywell Town FC 2
Conwy Borough 1
Rhyl 2
Cefn Druids -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Monmouth 4
Undy 3
Taffs Well 1
Ynysddu Welfare 2
Penybont 3
Panteg 1
Llandrindod 1
Aberbargoed Buds 2
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Barry Town -
1/32-finals
Cardiff Metropolitan University -
TBD -
Cwmbran Town 1
Ton Pentre 2
Cwmamman United 2
Blaenrhondda 1
TBD -
Aberystwyth -
Haverfordwest 4
Pure Swansea 3
Goytre AFC 3
Pontypridd United 6
Flint Town 3
Gresford 2
TBD -
Bala -
Caernarfon -
TBD -
Berriew FC 3
Prestatyn 6
Holyhead 3
Ruthin Town 1
Cefn Albion 1
Bangor City 6
Carmarthen Town -
TBD -
Pontyclun FC 0
Goytre Utd 1
Guilsfield 4
Nantlle Vale FC 3
TBD -
Connahs Q. -
TNS -
TBD -
Sully Sports 1
Cwmbran Celtic 3
Porthmadog 4
Llanfair United 1
Llay Welfare 1
Airbus UK Broughton FC 9
Llangefni 5
St. Asaph 1
TBD -
Llanelli -
Briton Ferry 4
Treharris Athletic 3
TBD -
Llandudno FC -
Cambrian United 3
Caldicot 2
Buckley 1
Denbigh 3
Newtown -
TBD -
Caersws FC 1
Rhyl 3
Cefn Druids -
TBD -
Monmouth 1
Ynysddu Welfare 3
Penybont 2
Aberbargoed Buds 0
TBD -
Barry Town -
1/16-finals
Cardiff Metropolitan University 4
Ton Pentre 1
Cwmamman United 3
Aberystwyth 4
Haverfordwest 3
Pontypridd United 0
Flint Town 0
Bala 3
Caernarfon 3
Prestatyn 0
Holyhead 1
Bangor City 4
Carmarthen Town 3
Goytre Utd 0
Guilsfield 2
Connahs Q. 4
TNS 3
Cwmbran Celtic 0
Porthmadog 1
Airbus UK Broughton FC 2
Llangefni 1
Llanelli 0
Briton Ferry 2
Llandudno FC 3
Cambrian United 2
Denbigh 1
Newtown 1
Rhyl 2
Cefn Druids 3
Ynysddu Welfare 1
Penybont 1
Barry Town 4
1/8-finals
Cardiff Metropolitan University 3
Aberystwyth 1
Haverfordwest 0
Bala 4
Caernarfon 2
Bangor City 1
Carmarthen Town 1
Connahs Q. 3
TNS 5
Airbus UK Broughton FC 2
Llangefni 1
Llandudno FC 3
Cambrian United 3
Rhyl 2
Cefn Druids 2
Barry Town 3
Quarter-finals
Cardiff Metropolitan University 1
Bala 0
Caernarfon 1
Connahs Q. 2
TNS 8
Llandudno FC 1
Cambrian United 2
Barry Town 3
Semi-finals
Cardiff Metropolitan University 0
Connahs Q. 3
TNS 2
Barry Town 0
Final
Connahs Q. 0
TNS 3
