Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Tondela vs Varzim

World World

Club Friendly
Our Tip

Match Events

2' Event
Maviram N.

AI Match Summary

Tondela in this Club Friendly matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Tondela.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Tondela
15%
Draws
34%
Varzim
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Tondela

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Tondela haven't matched Varzim's recent run of results.
  • Tondela are the model's pick here, at 36%.
  • Regular Club Friendly form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.6%
Tondela Clean Sheet 12%
Varzim Clean Sheet 19%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tondela Varzim
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 9 13
Draws 9 4
Losses 12 14
Goals Scored 1.13 1.23
Goals Conceded 1.37 1.1
Expected Goals (xG) 0.76 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 15, 2026 Club Friendly
Tondela vs Varzim
1:0
Jun 10, 2012 Second Division - Zona Centro
Varzim vs Tondela
3:1
May 27, 2012 Second Division - Zona Centro
Tondela vs Varzim
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Tondela Compare

Top Goalscorer Maviram N.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.58
Avg xA / game 0.38

Varzim Compare

Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tondela 35 / 100
Varzim 34 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tondela Varzim

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Tondela's goal record stands at 63% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Varzim's defensive record shows goals conceded in 77% of 31 matches.

Historical meetings average 1.67 goals per match.

Tondela went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Tondela VS Varzim
0.63 Goals Scored 1.88
1.63 Goals Conceded 0.88
75% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Tondela

(Home)
19 Sept
Imortal
1 : 5
Tondela
12 Sept
Portimonense
0 : 2
Tondela
05 Sept
Tondela
3 : 0
FC Porto B
28 Aug
Leiria
2 : 0
Tondela
21 Aug
Tondela
0 : 2
Academica
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Varzim

(Away)
19 Sept
Vitoria Sernache
2 : 1
Varzim
12 Sept
Varzim
1 : 2
SC Vianense
05 Sept
Varzim
0 : 1
Paredes
29 Aug
Varzim
5 : 1
Trofense
22 Aug
Pacos Ferreira
1 : 4
Varzim
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