Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Toulouse vs Lille

France France

Ligue 1 2025/2026 Stadium de Toulouse, Toulouse
Our Tip

Match Events

23' Event
Nicolaisen R.
Own Goal
48'
McKenzie M.
50' Event
Perraud R.

AI Match Summary

Lille in this Ligue 1 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 0-4 — backing the pre-match view that favored Lille.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
Toulouse
39%
Draws
31%
Lille
Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Lille lately — more wins on the board than Toulouse.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Lille have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Toulouse Clean Sheet 68%
Lille Clean Sheet 17%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Toulouse Lille
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 12 13
Draws 7 5
Losses 10 11
Goals Scored 1.25 1.5
Goals Conceded 2.25 0.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.25 0.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 12, 2026 Ligue 1
Toulouse vs Lille
0:4
Sep 14, 2025 Ligue 1
Lille vs Toulouse
2:1
Apr 12, 2025 Ligue 1
Toulouse vs Lille
1:2
Oct 5, 2024 Ligue 1
Lille vs Toulouse
2:1
Feb 25, 2024 Ligue 1
Toulouse vs Lille
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Toulouse Compare

Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Lille Compare

Top Goalscorer Perraud R.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Fernandez-Pardo M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Toulouse 41 / 100
Lille 31 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Toulouse Lille

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick TOU Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 3.40 goals.

Solid form: Toulouse remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.

Toulouse scored in 72% of their last 29 games.

Lille has conceded goals in 59% of their last 29 outings.

Scoring Trends

Toulouse VS Lille
1.25 Goals Scored 1.5
2.25 Goals Conceded 0.5
88% Over 1.5 63%
88% Over 2.5 38%
63% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Toulouse

(Home)
25 Jul
Toulouse
1 : 1
Rodez
17 May
Nantes
0 : 0
Toulouse
10 May
Toulouse
2 : 1
Lyon
03 May
Strasbourg
1 : 2
Toulouse
25 Apr
Toulouse
2 : 2
Monaco
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Lille

(Away)
25 Jul
Royale Union SG
2 : 1
Lille
18 Jul
Lille
3 : 0
RAAL La Louviere
17 May
Lille
0 : 2
Auxerre
10 May
Monaco
0 : 1
Lille
03 May
Lille
1 : 1
Le Havre
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1PSG34244674:2976
2Lens34224866:3570
3Lille34187952:3761
4Lyon341861053:4060
5Marseille341851163:4559
6Rennes34178959:5059
7Monaco341661260:5454
8Strasbourg341581158:4753
9Toulouse341291347:4645
10Lorient3411121148:5145
11Paris FC3411111247:5044
12Brest341091543:5539
13Angers34991629:4836
14Le Havre347141332:4435
15Auxerre348101634:4434
16Nice347111637:6032
17Nantes34592029:5224
18Metz34382332:7617
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Ligue 1 2025/2026 (Relegation - Play Offs)
Relegation - Ligue 2 (Main)