Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Toulouse vs Lorient

France France

Ligue 1 2025/2026 Stadium de Toulouse, Toulouse
Our Tip

Match Events

5'
Hidalgo S.
47'
Cadiou N.
64'
Sub
Russell-Rowe J. In: Emersonn
Out: Russell-Rowe J.

AI Match Summary

The Ligue 1 2025/2026 game between Toulouse and Lorient finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Toulouse.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Toulouse
39%
Draws
30%
Lorient
Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence
  • Toulouse haven't matched Lorient's recent run of results.
  • 39% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Regular Ligue 1 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Toulouse Clean Sheet 11%
Lorient Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Toulouse Lorient
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 13 15
Draws 7 9
Losses 10 6
Goals Scored 1.25 1.63
Goals Conceded 2 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.00 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 21, 2026 Ligue 1
Toulouse vs Lorient
1:0
Nov 9, 2025 Ligue 1
Lorient vs Toulouse
1:1
Apr 28, 2024 Ligue 1
Lorient vs Toulouse
1:2
Dec 3, 2023 Ligue 1
Toulouse vs Lorient
1:1
Apr 23, 2023 Ligue 1
Lorient vs Toulouse
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Toulouse Compare

Top Goalscorer Emersonn
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Lorient Compare

Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Toulouse 30 / 100
Lorient 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Toulouse Lorient

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick LOR Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Toulouse has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Toulouse's goal record stands at 73% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Lorient let in goals in 67% of their last 30 matches.

Historical meetings average 1.80 goals per match.

Scoring Trends

Toulouse VS Lorient
1.25 Goals Scored 1.63
2 Goals Conceded 1.38
88% Over 1.5 100%
75% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Toulouse

(Home)
25 Jul
Toulouse
1 : 1
Rodez
17 May
Nantes
0 : 0
Toulouse
10 May
Toulouse
2 : 1
Lyon
03 May
Strasbourg
1 : 2
Toulouse
25 Apr
Toulouse
2 : 2
Monaco
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Lorient

(Away)
25 Jul
Guingamp
0 : 2
Lorient
18 Jul
Lorient
1 : 0
Nantes
11 Jul
Concarneau
1 : 2
Lorient
17 May
Lorient
0 : 2
Le Havre
10 May
Metz
0 : 4
Lorient
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1PSG34244674:2976
2Lens34224866:3570
3Lille34187952:3761
4Lyon341861053:4060
5Marseille341851163:4559
6Rennes34178959:5059
7Monaco341661260:5454
8Strasbourg341581158:4753
9Toulouse341291347:4645
10Lorient3411121148:5145
11Paris FC3411111247:5044
12Brest341091543:5539
13Angers34991629:4836
14Le Havre347141332:4435
15Auxerre348101634:4434
16Nice347111637:6032
17Nantes34592029:5224
18Metz34382332:7617
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Ligue 1 2025/2026 (Relegation - Play Offs)
Relegation - Ligue 2 (Main)