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Toyama vs Tokushima Prediction & H2H Stats

Japan Japan

J2/J3 League Toyama Stadium, Toyama
Toyama Logo

Toyama

Sun, May 17, 2026
2 - 3
05:00 AM
Tokushima Logo

Tokushima

Our Tip

Match Events

15' Event
Lucas Barcelos
19'
Lucas Barcelos
24' Event
Fuseya S.
Assist: Takahashi Y.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Tokushima in this J2/J3 League matchup, with the score ending 2-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored Tokushima.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

46%
Toyama
20%
Draws
34%
Tokushima
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Toyama

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Medium Confidence
  • Toyama have won more games recently than Tokushima.
  • Model gives Toyama a 46% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Tokushima have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.400000000000002%
Toyama Clean Sheet 68%
Tokushima Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Toyama Tokushima
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 18 16
Draws 2 1
Losses 9 12
Goals Scored 1.9 1.52
Goals Conceded 1.38 1.28
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 17, 2026 J2/J3 League
Toyama vs Tokushima
2:3
Feb 22, 2026 J2/J3 League
Tokushima vs Toyama
1:3
Sep 28, 2025 J2 League
Toyama vs Tokushima
1:3
Apr 26, 2025 J2 League
Tokushima vs Toyama
1:0
Aug 18, 2013 J2 League
Tokushima vs Toyama
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Toyama Compare

Top Goalscorer Fuseya S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Tsuboi K.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Tokushima Compare

Top Goalscorer Lucas Barcelos
1 Goals
Assists Leader Kajiya Y.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Toyama 95 / 100
Tokushima 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Toyama Tokushima

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Toyama Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Toyama scored in 86% of their last 29 outings.

Historical meetings average 3.20 goals per match.

Solid form: Toyama remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Tokushima lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Toyama VS Tokushima
1.5 Goals Scored 1.25
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 50%
63% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Toyama

(Home)
03 Oct
Kofu
1 : 2
Toyama
29 Sept
Toyama
2 : 3
Urawa Reds
26 Sept
Toyama
3 : 3
Yokohama FC
19 Sept
Montedio Yamagata
0 : 2
Toyama
12 Sept
Toyama
0 : 0
Tochigi City
Page 1 of 6

Tokushima

(Away)
03 Oct
Albirex Niigata
2 : 1
Tokushima
26 Sept
Tokushima
3 : 0
Tochigi City
23 Sept
Gamba Osaka
5 : 0
Tokushima
19 Sept
Kofu
0 : 1
Tokushima
12 Sept
Blaublitz
4 : 1
Tokushima
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vegalta Sendai 18 16 0 2 37:15 43
2 Blaublitz 18 11 0 7 23:16 35
3 Shonan Bellmare 18 11 0 7 28:20 31
4 Yokohama FC 18 10 0 8 36:28 29
5 SC Sagamihara 18 9 0 9 33:36 28
6 Thespakusatsu Gunma 18 7 0 11 27:39 23
7 Montedio Yamagata 18 8 0 10 22:25 22
8 Tochigi City 18 7 0 11 22:35 21
9 Vanraure 17 5 0 12 16:23 18
10 Tochigi SC 17 5 0 12 24:31 17
Promotion - J2/J3 League (Play Offs)
Promotion - J2/J3 League (Placement Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Kofu 17 11 0 6 20:12 33
2 Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo 18 11 0 7 28:22 31
3 Iwaki 18 11 0 7 26:20 31
4 Omiya Ardija 18 10 0 8 39:29 30
5 Fujieda MYFC 18 9 0 9 24:23 30
6 Gifu 17 9 0 8 23:25 27
7 Matsumoto Yamaga 18 8 0 10 33:25 26
8 Iwata 18 9 0 9 20:25 25
9 Fukushima United 18 6 0 12 30:43 18
10 Nagano Parceiro 18 5 0 13 17:36 16
Promotion - J2/J3 League (Play Offs)
Promotion - J2/J3 League (Placement Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Toyama 18 13 0 5 40:26 38
2 Albirex Niigata 18 12 0 6 24:19 35
3 Tokushima 18 11 0 7 38:23 32
4 Kochi United 18 10 0 8 25:23 30
5 Ehime 18 9 0 9 26:20 28
6 Kanazawa 18 10 0 8 20:23 27
7 Nara Club 18 7 0 11 27:36 21
8 FC Osaka 18 6 0 12 18:23 20
9 Imabari 18 6 0 12 15:21 20
10 Kamatamare Sanuki 18 6 0 12 15:34 19
Promotion - J2/J3 League (Play Offs)
Promotion - J2/J3 League (Placement Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 4)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Tegevajaro Miyazaki 18 15 0 3 35:13 47
2 Kagoshima United 18 12 0 6 27:16 33
3 Sagan Tosu 18 10 0 8 26:18 32
4 Renofa Yamaguchi 18 10 0 8 27:24 29
5 Kumamoto 18 9 0 9 21:21 27
6 Gainare Tottori 18 10 0 8 24:25 27
7 Oita Trinita 18 7 0 11 19:20 22
8 Reilac Shiga 18 7 0 11 16:29 21
9 Ryukyu 18 6 0 12 17:28 17
10 Giravanz Kitakyushu 18 4 0 14 17:35 15
Promotion - J2/J3 League (Play Offs)
Promotion - J2/J3 League (Placement Play Offs)