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Trefelin vs Cambrian United

Wales Wales

Cymru Premier Ynys Park, Cwmafan
Our Tip

Match Events

9'
Bright H.
27' Event
Eason L.
Penalty Missed
27' Event
John A.

AI Match Summary

The Cymru Premier game between Trefelin and Cambrian United finished 0-4, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Cambrian United.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

13%
Trefelin
35%
Draws
52%
Cambrian United
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Cambrian United

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

52% / Medium Confidence
  • Trefelin haven't matched Cambrian United's recent run of results.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 44% draw probability.
  • Regular Cymru Premier form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.400000000000002%
Trefelin Clean Sheet 10%
Cambrian United Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Trefelin Cambrian United
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 16 19
Draws 3 6
Losses 10 5
Goals Scored 2.1 2
Goals Conceded 1.55 1.2
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 2.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 15, 2026 Cymru Premier
Trefelin vs Cambrian United
0:4
Mar 17, 2026 Cymru South
Trefelin vs Cambrian United
0:4
Oct 10, 2025 Cymru South
Cambrian United vs Trefelin
0:2
Feb 28, 2025 Cymru South
Cambrian United vs Trefelin
1:3
Nov 2, 2024 Cymru South
Trefelin vs Cambrian United
5:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Trefelin Compare

Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Cambrian United Compare

Top Goalscorer John A.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Eason L.
2 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.87
Avg xA / game 1.14

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Trefelin 34 / 100
Cambrian United 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Trefelin Cambrian United

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Cambrian United Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:7
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 4.20 goals per match.

Trefelin's goal record stands at 72% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Cambrian United's defensive record shows goals conceded in 53% of 30 matches.

Recent resilience: Trefelin stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Trefelin VS Cambrian United
0.38 Goals Scored 1.5
2.63 Goals Conceded 1.38
88% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Trefelin

(Home)
18 Sept
Briton Ferry
1 : 1
Trefelin
15 Sept
Trefelin
0 : 4
Cambrian United
11 Sept
Trefelin
0 : 1
Penybont
04 Sept
Holywell Town FC
1 : 1
Trefelin
31 Aug
Haverfordwest
2 : 1
Trefelin
Page 1 of 6

Cambrian United

(Away)
18 Sept
Caernarfon
9 : 1
Cambrian United
15 Sept
Trefelin
0 : 4
Cambrian United
11 Sept
Cambrian United
2 : 1
Holywell Town FC
04 Sept
Cardiff Metropolitan University
2 : 2
Cambrian United
31 Aug
Cambrian United
2 : 2
Penybont
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 TNS 10 9 1 0 26:4 28
2 Penybont 10 7 3 0 20:8 24
3 Caernarfon 10 7 1 2 33:11 22
4 Connahs Q. 10 7 1 2 23:7 22
5 Barry Town 10 7 1 2 25:16 22
6 Colwyn Bay 10 6 1 3 20:14 19
7 Llandudno FC 10 5 1 4 18:14 16
8 Airbus UK Broughton FC 10 5 0 5 17:15 15
9 Cambrian United 10 4 3 3 17:20 15
10 Cardiff Metropolitan University 9 4 2 3 19:11 14
11 Haverfordwest 9 3 1 5 7:14 10
12 Briton Ferry 10 2 2 6 9:19 8
13 Trefelin 10 0 3 7 4:24 3
14 Ammanford Town 10 0 3 7 7:28 3
15 Flint Town 10 0 2 8 8:24 2
16 Holywell Town FC 10 0 1 9 11:35 1
Promotion - Cymru Premier (Championship Group)
Promotion - Cymru Premier (Conference League Group)
Relegation - Cymru Premier (Relegation Group)