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Trefelin vs Penybont - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Wales Wales

Cymru Premier Ynys Park, Cwmafan
Our Tip

Match Events

28'
Jones J.
39'
Thomas M.
57'
Baker A.

AI Match Summary

Penybont in this Cymru Premier matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Penybont.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

28%
Trefelin
15%
Draws
57%
Penybont
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Penybont

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • Penybont have won more games recently than Trefelin.
  • Penybont are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.4%
Trefelin Clean Sheet 10%
Penybont Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Trefelin Penybont
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 11 16
Draws 3 5
Losses 15 9
Goals Scored 1.76 1.5
Goals Conceded 2 0.97
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 2.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 11, 2026 Cymru Premier
Trefelin vs Penybont
0:1
Aug 2, 2025 League Cup
Trefelin vs Penybont
1:6

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Trefelin Compare

Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53

Penybont Compare

Top Goalscorer Walker T.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 2.16
Avg xA / game 1.32

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Trefelin 10 / 100
Penybont 84 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Trefelin Penybont

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Penybont Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 4.00 goals per match.

Trefelin found the back of the net in 62% of recent matches (29 games).

Penybont let in goals in 60% of their last 30 matches.

Recent resilience: Trefelin stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Trefelin VS Penybont
1.13 Goals Scored 2.75
2 Goals Conceded 1
88% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 75%
50% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Trefelin

(Home)
06 Nov
Trefelin
1 : 2
Colwyn Bay
30 Oct
Barry Town
3 : 0
Trefelin
23 Oct
Trefelin
0 : 2
Flint Town
17 Oct
Trefelin
4 : 1
Llantwit Major
09 Oct
Cardiff Metropolitan University
1 : 3
Trefelin
Page 1 of 6

Penybont

(Away)
06 Nov
Penybont
2 : 0
Caernarfon
31 Oct
Cardiff Metropolitan University
0 : 5
Penybont
18 Oct
Afan Lido
2 : 3
Penybont
09 Oct
Penybont
3 : 1
Barry Town
03 Oct
Connahs Q.
1 : 0
Penybont
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 TNS 16 14 2 0 54:6 44
2 Connahs Q. 16 12 2 2 34:9 38
3 Penybont 15 11 3 1 32:11 36
4 Colwyn Bay 16 10 2 4 28:18 32
5 Airbus UK Broughton FC 16 10 0 6 34:24 30
6 Caernarfon 16 9 2 5 42:21 29
7 Barry Town 16 9 2 5 35:29 29
8 Cardiff Metropolitan University 16 7 4 5 29:23 25
9 Cambrian United 16 5 4 7 26:41 19
10 Llandudno FC 16 5 1 10 22:29 16
11 Haverfordwest 16 5 1 10 12:23 16
12 Briton Ferry 16 4 3 9 17:28 15
13 Flint Town 16 4 2 10 19:27 14
14 Ammanford Town 16 3 3 10 13:43 12
15 Trefelin 16 1 3 12 9:38 6
16 Holywell Town FC 15 0 2 13 16:52 2
Promotion - Cymru Premier (Championship Group)
Promotion - Cymru Premier (Conference League Group)
Relegation - Cymru Premier (Relegation Group)