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Trefelin vs Penybont

Wales Wales

Cymru Premier Ynys Park, Cwmafan
Our Tip

Match Events

28'
Jones J.
39'
Thomas M.
57'
Baker A.

AI Match Summary

Penybont in this Cymru Premier matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Penybont.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

9%
Trefelin
30%
Draws
61%
Penybont
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Penybont

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

61% / High Confidence
  • Trefelin have won more games recently than Penybont.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 65.8%
Trefelin Clean Sheet 10%
Penybont Clean Sheet 20%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Trefelin Penybont
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 16 11
Draws 3 8
Losses 10 9
Goals Scored 2.1 1.14
Goals Conceded 1.55 1.14
Expected Goals (xG) 0.51 2.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 11, 2026 Cymru Premier
Trefelin vs Penybont
0:1
Aug 2, 2025 League Cup
Trefelin vs Penybont
1:6

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Trefelin Compare

Avg xG / game 0.39
Avg xA / game 0.26

Penybont Compare

Top Goalscorer Walker T.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.87
Avg xA / game 1.14

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Trefelin 30 / 100
Penybont 31 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Trefelin Penybont

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Penybont Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 4.00 goals per match.

Trefelin found the back of the net in 72% of recent matches (29 games).

Penybont let in goals in 61% of their last 28 matches.

Recent resilience: Trefelin stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Trefelin VS Penybont
0.38 Goals Scored 1.5
2.63 Goals Conceded 0.63
88% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Trefelin

(Home)
18 Sept
Briton Ferry
1 : 1
Trefelin
15 Sept
Trefelin
0 : 4
Cambrian United
11 Sept
Trefelin
0 : 1
Penybont
04 Sept
Holywell Town FC
1 : 1
Trefelin
31 Aug
Haverfordwest
2 : 1
Trefelin
Page 1 of 6

Penybont

(Away)
18 Sept
Ammanford Town
1 : 5
Penybont
15 Sept
Penybont
3 : 2
Briton Ferry
11 Sept
Trefelin
0 : 1
Penybont
05 Sept
Penybont
1 : 0
Colwyn Bay
31 Aug
Cambrian United
2 : 2
Penybont
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 TNS 10 9 1 0 26:4 28
2 Penybont 10 7 3 0 20:8 24
3 Caernarfon 10 7 1 2 33:11 22
4 Connahs Q. 10 7 1 2 23:7 22
5 Barry Town 10 7 1 2 25:16 22
6 Colwyn Bay 10 6 1 3 20:14 19
7 Llandudno FC 10 5 1 4 18:14 16
8 Airbus UK Broughton FC 10 5 0 5 17:15 15
9 Cambrian United 10 4 3 3 17:20 15
10 Cardiff Metropolitan University 9 4 2 3 19:11 14
11 Haverfordwest 9 3 1 5 7:14 10
12 Briton Ferry 10 2 2 6 9:19 8
13 Trefelin 10 0 3 7 4:24 3
14 Ammanford Town 10 0 3 7 7:28 3
15 Flint Town 10 0 2 8 8:24 2
16 Holywell Town FC 10 0 1 9 11:35 1
Promotion - Cymru Premier (Championship Group)
Promotion - Cymru Premier (Conference League Group)
Relegation - Cymru Premier (Relegation Group)