Sport Picks

Africa

Africa Cup of Nations 2025 Stade Olympique de Rabat, Rabat

Tunisia

3 - 1

Uganda

Our Tip

Match Events

10'

Skhiri E.

Assist: Mejbri H.

14'

Kayondo A.

40'

Achouri E.

Assist: Abdi A.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

This match ends 3-1, with Tunisia advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

Tunisia

15%

Draws

85%

Uganda

Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Uganda

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence

Uganda haven't matched Tunisia's recent run of results.
85% — that's where the model lands on Uganda taking it.
Tunisia have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
Historical meetings favor Tunisia, who have won 4 of the last 4 encounters.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Tunisia have won 4 of the last 4 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%

Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%

Over 2.5 Goals 25%

Over 3.5 Goals 22%

Over 4.5 Goals 10%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 27.6%

Tunisia Clean Sheet 28%

Uganda Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Tunisia	Uganda
Matches Played	28	24
Wins	12	11
Draws	5	3
Losses	11	10
Goals Scored	1.43	1.21
Goals Conceded	1.39	1.33
Expected Goals (xG)	1.25	0.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.10	1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Dec 23, 2025 Africa Cup of Nations

Tunisia vs Uganda

3:1

Jan 4, 2017 Friendly International

Tunisia vs Uganda

2:0

Mar 8, 1978 Africa Cup of Nations

Tunisia vs Uganda

3:1

Jan 19, 1962 Africa Cup of Nations

Tunisia vs Uganda

3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Tunisia Compare

Top Goalscorer Achouri E.

2 Goals

Assists Leader Skhiri E.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 0.96

Avg xA / game 0.63

Uganda Compare

Top Goalscorer Omedi D.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 0.63

Avg xA / game 0.38

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tunisia 10 / 100

Uganda 95 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Tunisia Uganda

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Uganda Win (2)

Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No

Correct Score 0:1

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 3.25 goals.

Attacking prowess: Tunisia scored in 71% of their last 28 outings.

Uganda has conceded goals in 63% of their last 24 outings.

Uganda lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Tunisia VS Uganda

1.63 Goals Scored 0.38

1 Goals Conceded 0.88

75% Over 1.5 38%

63% Over 2.5 25%

25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Tunisia

(Home)

25 Jun

Tunisia

1 : 3

Netherlands

21 Jun

Tunisia

0 : 4

Japan

15 Jun

Sweden

5 : 1

Tunisia

06 Jun

Belgium

5 : 0

Tunisia

01 Jun

Austria

1 : 0

Tunisia

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Uganda

(Away)

30 Dec

Uganda

1 : 3

Nigeria

27 Dec

Uganda

1 : 1

Tanzania

23 Dec

Tunisia

3 : 1

Uganda

18 Nov

Morocco

4 : 0

Uganda

14 Nov

Uganda

2 : 1

Chad

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