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Tunisia vs Uganda

Africa Africa

Africa Cup of Nations 2025 Stade Olympique de Rabat
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Tunisia play Uganda in the Africa Cup of Nations 2025. It looks like a close match. Recently, Tunisia averaged 1.52 goals scored and 1.34 conceded. Uganda averaged 1.3 goals scored and 1.19 conceded. In past meetings, Tunisia won 4, Uganda won 0, and they drew 0. Their last match on Dec 23, 2025 ended 3:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.25 for Tunisia and 0.69 for Uganda. This points to a Tunisia double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

45%
Tunisia
15%
Draws
40%
Uganda
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Tunisia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence
  • Tunisia picked up more points recently compared to Uganda.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.25 vs 0.69 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 53%
Over 3.5 Goals 32%
Over 4.5 Goals 16%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 37%
Tunisia Clean Sheet 28%
Uganda Clean Sheet 11%
First Half Goal 68%
Second Half Goal 71%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tunisia Uganda
Matches Played 29 27
Wins 13 14
Draws 5 3
Losses 11 10
Goals Scored 1.52 1.3
Goals Conceded 1.34 1.19
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 0.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.00 0.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Dec 23, 2025 Africa Cup of Nations
Tunisia vs Uganda
3:1
Jan 4, 2017 Friendly International
Tunisia vs Uganda
2:0
Mar 8, 1978 Africa Cup of Nations
Tunisia vs Uganda
3:1
Jan 19, 1962 Africa Cup of Nations
Tunisia vs Uganda
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Tunisia Compare

Top Goalscorer Achouri E.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Skhiri E.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

Uganda Compare

Top Goalscorer Omedi D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.35
Avg xA / game 0.21

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tunisia 46 / 100
Uganda 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tunisia Uganda

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Tunisia or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +21.5%
2.70
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +12.9%
2.13
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Tunisia attacking → ← attacking Uganda

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Tunisia scored in 72% of their last 29 games.

Uganda let in goals in 56% of their last 27 matches.

Games between these two average 3.25 goals.

Tunisia went unbeaten in 0 of their last 5 games.

Uganda lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

44 Points in last 5 45
1.63 Goals expected (xG) 0.38
1.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.88

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Morocco32106:17
2Mali30302:23
3Comoros30210:22
4Zambia30211:42
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Egypt32103:17
2South Africa32015:46
3Angola30212:32
4Zimbabwe30124:61
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Nigeria33008:49
2Tunisia31116:54
3Tanzania30213:42
4Uganda30123:71
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Senegal32107:17
2D.R. Congo32105:17
3Benin31021:43
4Botswana30030:70
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Algeria33007:19
2Burkina Faso32014:26
3Sudan31021:53
4Equatorial Guinea30032:60
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Ivory Coast32105:37
2Cameroon32104:27
3Mozambique31024:53
4Gabon30034:70