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Turan vs Kapaz

Azerbaijan Azerbaijan

Azerbaijan Cup Tovuz şəhər stadionu, Tovuz
Our Tip

Match Events

17'
Silva J.
36'
Silva J.
41'
Wadji I.

AI Match Summary

Turan in this Azerbaijan Cup tie, finishing 1-0. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Turan
33%
Draws
27%
Kapaz
Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Turan

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Turan lately — more wins on the board than Kapaz.
  • Win probability leans Turan's way, sitting at 40%.
  • Turan have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Turan, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Turan have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 27.200000000000003%
Turan Clean Sheet 68%
Kapaz Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Turan Kapaz
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 13 9
Draws 9 4
Losses 7 17
Goals Scored 1.38 0.63
Goals Conceded 1.13 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 0.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.13 1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 15, 2026 Premier League
Kapaz vs Turan
1:1
Mar 5, 2026 Azerbaijan Cup
Kapaz vs Turan
0:2
Feb 5, 2026 Azerbaijan Cup
Turan vs Kapaz
1:0
Dec 19, 2025 Premier League
Kapaz vs Turan
0:2
Sep 28, 2025 Premier League
Turan vs Kapaz
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Turan Compare

Top Goalscorer Hurtado H.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Kapaz Compare

Avg xG / game 0.57
Avg xA / game 0.35

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Turan 50 / 100
Kapaz 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Turan Kapaz

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick TUR Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Turan's goal record stands at 76% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Defensive concern: Kapaz conceded in 73% of 30 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Difficult form: Kapaz registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Turan VS Kapaz
1.38 Goals Scored 0.63
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.5
88% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 25%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Turan

(Home)
22 May
Turan
1 : 2
Sabah Baku
16 May
Shamakhi
3 : 2
Turan
10 May
Turan
1 : 0
Karvan
04 May
Qarabag Agdam
2 : 1
Turan
27 Apr
Turan
1 : 1
Zira FK
Page 1 of 6

Kapaz

(Away)
23 May
Kapaz
0 : 1
Neftci Baku
15 May
Araz PFK
2 : 0
Kapaz
08 May
Sabah Baku
0 : 1
Kapaz
02 May
Kapaz
2 : 1
SumQayit FK
26 Apr
Shamakhi
2 : 0
Kapaz
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/16-finals
Sabail0
Shamakhi1
Goygol0
Baku Sporting2
Qarabag Agdam-
TBD-
Karvan3
Sheki City1
Lokbatan2
Imisli FK3
TBD-
Sabah Baku-
Gabala5
Mingachevir1
Cebrayil0
Safa Baku3
Shimal0
Sahdag Qusar2
Dinamo Baki0
Turan5
Araz PFK-
TBD-
Kapaz6
Agstafa Gencleri1
FC Khankendi1
Difai Agsu2
Zaqatala PFK0
SumQayit FK3
Zira FK-
TBD-
Neftci Baku6
MOIK Baku2
1/8-finals
Shamakhi1
Baku Sporting0
Qarabag Agdam3
Karvan0
Imisli FK1
Sabah Baku2
Gabala2
Safa Baku1
Sahdag Qusar1
Turan2
Araz PFK0
Kapaz1
Difai Agsu1
SumQayit FK3
Zira FK1
Neftci Baku0
Quarter-finals
Shamakhi3
Qarabag Agdam4
Sabah Baku4
Gabala3
Turan3
Kapaz0
SumQayit FK0
Zira FK2
Semi-finals
Qarabag Agdam3
Sabah Baku4
Turan0
Zira FK2
Final
Sabah Baku2
Zira FK1