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Tusker vs APS Bomet Prediction & H2H Stats

Kenya Kenya

Premier League
Our Tip

Match Events

45' Event
Simiyu I.
90'
Omolle T.
90' Event
Masembe E.
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

The Premier League game between Tusker and APS Bomet finished 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

35%
Tusker
20%
Draws
45%
APS Bomet
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: APS Bomet

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Tusker carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 35% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 44.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 21%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 24.8%
Tusker Clean Sheet 68%
APS Bomet Clean Sheet 20%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Tusker APS Bomet
Matches Played 27 25
Wins 14 9
Draws 3 9
Losses 10 7
Goals Scored 0.93 1.08
Goals Conceded 0.81 0.88
Expected Goals (xG) 0.70 0.57
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 31, 2026 Premier League
Tusker vs APS Bomet
1:1
Dec 21, 2025 Premier League
APS Bomet vs Tusker
0:1
Mar 18, 2023 Premier League
Tusker vs APS Bomet
0:0
Nov 5, 2022 Premier League
APS Bomet vs Tusker
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Tusker Compare

Top Goalscorer Simiyu I.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.54
Avg xA / game 0.35

APS Bomet Compare

Avg xG / game 0.52
Avg xA / game 0.32

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Tusker 41 / 100
APS Bomet 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Tusker APS Bomet

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Tusker Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Tusker has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Attacking prowess: Tusker scored in 59% of their last 27 outings.

APS Bomet has conceded goals in 52% of their last 25 outings.

H2H data points to 0.75 goals as a typical output.

Scoring Trends

Tusker VS APS Bomet
1.25 Goals Scored 0.14
1 Goals Conceded 0.14
75% Over 1.5 14%
38% Over 2.5 0%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Tusker

(Home)
12 Sept
Tusker
1 : 0
Madani
06 Sept
Madani
2 : 2
Tusker
23 Aug
Mahia
1 : 3
Tusker
01 Aug
Tusker
2 : 0
KVZ
29 Jul
Tusker
0 : 1
Rayon Sport
Page 1 of 6

APS Bomet

(Away)
31 May
Tusker
1 : 1
APS Bomet
24 May
APS Bomet
2 : 1
Leopards
20 May
Bandari
0 : 2
APS Bomet
10 May
Mathare United
0 : 2
APS Bomet
06 May
APS Bomet
1 : 0
KCB
Page 1 of 5

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Mahia 34 20 9 5 50:22 69
2 Leopards 34 19 7 8 44:28 64
3 Police FC 34 13 16 5 31:21 55
4 Nairobi United 34 14 11 9 44:34 53
5 Shabana 34 14 10 10 35:34 52
6 Kakamega Homeboyz 34 12 13 9 47:37 49
7 KCB 34 13 9 12 36:37 48
8 Muranga 34 13 8 13 42:41 47
9 Tusker 34 13 6 15 27:32 45
10 APS Bomet 34 11 11 12 37:35 44
11 Mara Sugar 34 10 14 10 30:30 44
12 Bandari 34 9 17 8 26:26 44
13 Ulinzi Stars 34 11 8 15 34:37 41
14 Mathare United 34 11 8 15 31:35 41
15 Posta Rangers 34 9 13 12 31:40 40
16 Kariobangi Sharks 34 8 14 12 30:33 38
17 Bidco United 34 5 12 17 19:40 27
18 Sofapaka 34 3 10 21 19:51 19
Promotion - CAF Champions League (Qualification)
Relegation - Premier League (Relegation)
Relegation - Super League 2026/2027 (Main)